In what was supposed to be the next step in their contention window, the 2025 Major League Baseball season has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for the Baltimore Orioles.
The club currently sits in last place in the American League East with a 40-50 record and is seven games out of the third Wild Card spot. An offense expected to be among the most powerful in the league has been stymied by injuries and underperformance by players like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Ryan Mountcastle, while the bullpen has taken a step back with the regression of the once-dominant set-up man Yennier Cano.
The offense and bullpen issues, however, pale in comparison to the mess that is the starting rotation, a unit that ranks 29th in baseball with a 5.27 ERA. No pitcher that has made more than six starts for the Orioles has an ERA below 4.44, with off-season acquisitions Tomoyuki Sugano (5.25 FIP, 5.5 K/9) and Charlie Morton (5.47 ERA) being particularly disappointing. Things got so bad that the Orioles were forced to thrust 37-year-old Kyle Gibson into the rotation, who allowed 23 runs in 12.1 innings before being released.
Despite everything that has gone wrong, however, there are still some reasons for hope for the O’s. Former top prospect Jackson Holliday has taken a massive step forward in his age-21 season and should form an elite double-play combination with superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson for years to come. Closer Felix Bautista has recaptured his dominant form in his return from Tommy John Surgery, and starters Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish should provide a similar boost in their second-half returns.
This trade deadline will prove to be a key checkpoint for the Orioles' return to contention. While the 2025 season may be a wash, they could position themselves well for 2026 and beyond, and The Athletic’s Jim Bowden believes that involves being open-minded and aggressive in dealing players who are not part of the long-term plan.
“Offer everyone up in trades except Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday and Grayson Rodriguez,” Bowden wrote. “Don’t fall in love with your own players and prospects and be open-minded and wheel-and-deal until you have a contending pitching staff and an elite defense.”
This sell-off would certainly start with the Orioles' collection of impending free agents, including Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto. While none of those players will be among the best players dealt at the deadline, the recently named All-Star O’Hearn will draw a lot of interest as a righty-masher and Soto and Dominguez could fetch decent returns as high-octane relievers. And while they might not draw as much interest, former second overall pick Heston Kjerstad and power-hitting prospect Coby Mayo look like obvious change-of-scenery candidates and may be of interest to teams who believe they could finally unlock their potential.
If the Orioles really want to get bold, however, they could follow Bowden’s advice and put Bautista on the market. Though his numbers haven’t quite matched his 2023 breakout season, the 30-year-old closer has still posted a 2.48 ERA and struck out 48 batters in just 32.2 innings. As to be expected for a player returning from Tommy John Surgery, Bautista has only gotten better as the season has gone along, allowing just one run in his last fifteen appearances and converting all eight of his save opportunities. With two more years of team control, Bautista would undoubtedly be the best reliever available on the market, and could be the piece that allows the Orioles to patch the hole in their starting rotation with an intriguing young arm.
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