After the Week 0 teaser, college football is officially back in earnest, with a loaded Week 1 NCAAF betting slate. Action starts at 5:30 pm ET between No. 25 Boise State vs. South Florida. This is just one matchup that we include in our college football picks today.
Below, we explain our favorite college football betting picks for Thursday. Check out the betting bonuses on FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM for these wagers.
| College Football Picks | Odds |
| Nebraska -6.5 | -120 on FanDuel |
| Buffalo/Minnesota Under 44.5 | -110 on DraftKings |
| South Florida +6.5 | -115 on BetMGM |
Nebraska, QB Raiola Start Hot
A lot of eyes are going to be on this Nebraska team this year. Part of the reason is due to their head coach Matt Rhule, who has had a ton of success at the collegiate level in the past, and because of their QB Dylan Raiola, who physically looks like Patrick Mahomes. The reality is Nebraska needs to show some improvement in Rhule's third year with the team, and we believe they start out with a 7+ point victory over Cincinnati to start their season.
While we generally like to look at teams that return a lot of players from last year, and that is the case with Cincinnati, the issue is the Cincinnati team was not very good last year, especially on offense. They failed to score more than 24 points in their last seven games to end the 2024 season, and return most of the same team, including QB Brendan Sorsby. Even as Nebraska has disappointed in Rhule's first two years with the team, their defense has been fantastic both of those years.
On the other side of the ball, the Nebraska offense could make some noise, led by Railoa. He is a somewhat popular pick a Heisman sleeper this year, and Nebraska added plenty of talent in the transfer portal as well. The offense took a step forward when Dana Holgorsen took over as the offensive coordinator, and the team now has had a full offseason with him at the helm.
Fade Offenses in Buffalo-Minnesota
The total is admittedly a low for a college football game (44.5), but for good reason. This is a matchup between two teams that are going to rely on their defense to lead them to success, with offenses predicated on slowing the ball down.
Buffalo specifically is led by their front seven, which is among the best in the country and certainly the MAC. They return pass rusher Kobe Stewart, a redshirt senior who led the MAC with 9.5 sacks last season.
They also have returning junior Dion Crawford, who recorded 8.5 sacks in the 2024 season. They key on this side of the ball will be if Buffalo can contain Minnesota on the ground, as the Buffalo defense is sure to generate pressure and make things difficult for Minnesota redshirt QB Drake Lindsey.
Both offenses are going to rely on their running game, which is going to slow the game down and keep the clock rolling. The Buffalo offense is headlined by RB Al-Jay Henderson, who was an All-MAC running back last year, with a transfer QB in Ta'Quan Roberson at his fourth stop. The Minnesota offense especially is designed to play at a slow-pace, and they are hoping their talented, but relatively new playing together, offensive line can dictate the terms against the Buffalo defense.
Either way, we are not projecting a ton of points in this one.
South Florida Keeps It Close at Home
This is going to be the first game played on this Thursday NCAAF slate, with kickoff set for 5:30 pm ET. With the game being played in Florida, the temperatures are going to be hot, with temps in the 90s and a heat index near 100 at kickoff. Lines have been moving toward South Florida as the game has gotten close, so there is some sharp money coming in on South Florida to cover.
The biggest question mark heading into this game is the South Florida QB Byrum Brown, who was fantastic in 2023 but missed most of last year due to injury. South Florida plays at a fast pace and challenges defenses by taking shots deep and utilizes all the space on the field to their advantaged. The South Florida line returns three starters and using the transfer portal for the remaining two slots.
Boise State returns a lot of production outside of Ashton Jeanty from last year’s team, but it is also hard to put into words just how much the offense relied on him. For context, he was only 28 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders' single-season rushing yards record.
Boise State is still sure to be good, of course, but this is more-so a play backing South Florida as opposed to fading Boise State. South Florida keeps it close, with the over being in play in this one as well.