USC-Notre Dame Betting Picks, Props for the Top 20 NCAAF Matchup

One of the featured matchups of the Week 8 College Football schedule will see two of the sport's bluebloods facing off in primetime. Before kickoff arrives, read the breakdown below for all the best USC-Notre Dame betting picks to wager on the action.

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 9.5-point home favorites in a historic rivalry matchup against the USC Trojans.
• A massive line movement has seen the game total skyrocket from an opening of 53.5 to its current mark of 61.5.
• With a forecast calling for potential wind and rain in South Bend, Notre Dame's physical defense and potent ground game could be the deciding factors.

One of college football's most storied rivalries gets a prime-time renewal as the USC Trojans travel to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This matchup is a classic clash of styles, pitting USC's explosive, high-flying offense against Notre Dame's disciplined, hard-hitting defense. The quarterback battle will be front and center, with USC's Jayden Maiava, who pilots an offense averaging a staggering 45.5 points per game, looking to solve a formidable Irish defense.

Maiava has been electric this season, completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,852 yards and a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His counterpart, Notre Dame's CJ Carr, has been a model of efficiency, completing 66.5% of his throws while orchestrating a balanced attack that puts up nearly 40 points per contest. While both offenses can light up the scoreboard, the game could hinge on which team can impose its will in the trenches and win the turnover battle, a category where Notre Dame has excelled with a +6 differential.

This article will break down the odds, analyze key matchups, and provide our best bets and player prop picks for this iconic clash under the lights at Notre Dame Stadium.

USC vs Notre Dame Game Details

The USC Trojans (6-0) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) will square off at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET and will be broadcast on NBC. The weather forecast calls for cool temperatures in the low 50s, with a chance of light rain and winds of 10-15 mph, which could impact the passing and kicking games.

Notre Dame has dominated the recent series at home, winning the last five meetings in South Bend, including a decisive 48-20 victory last season, where their defense forced five turnovers.

USC vs Notre Dame Betting Odds

The odds paint Notre Dame as a significant home favorite, with their -340 moneyline price implying a greater than 73% chance of winning outright. The Fighting Irish have been strong in this spot, going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against USC. The Trojans, meanwhile, have struggled to cover on the road in prime time, posting a 2-4 ATS record in their last six such contests.

USC vs Notre Dame Odds Movement & Analysis

This college football betting market has seen dramatic movement, particularly on the spread and total. Notre Dame opened as a massive 13.5-point favorite, but early money on the underdog Trojans has driven that line down a full four points to (-9.5). This suggests sharp bettors believe USC's high-powered offense can keep the game within double digits.

Even more striking is the total, which opened at 53.5 and has since ballooned to 61.5. This eight-point surge indicates the market anticipates a shootout, despite a weather forecast that could favor a lower-scoring, ground-based affair. The public is reportedly heavy on Notre Dame, creating a classic sharp versus public dynamic. The value may now lie in siding with the initial line movement, particularly on the under, as the market might have overcorrected for the offensive firepower on display.

USC vs Notre Dame – Key Matchups to Watch

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

This is the game's premier matchup. Maiava and the USC passing attack are a juggernaut, averaging 308.6 yards per game with an elite 185.6 QB rating. They will face their toughest test against a Notre Dame secondary that has been a takeaway machine, snagging 11 interceptions on the season.

The Irish defense allows a respectable 245.3 passing yards per game but excels at creating chaos, boasting 15 sacks and a +6 turnover differential. If Notre Dame's pass rush can disrupt Maiava's timing, it could neutralize USC's biggest strength.

Running Game vs Run Defense

While the passing games get the headlines, the battle on the ground will be pivotal, especially if weather becomes a factor. USC's rushing attack is explosive, averaging an incredible 6.38 yards per carry.

However, Notre Dame's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.35 yards per carry and 106.2 yards per game. On the other side, the Fighting Irish feature a powerful one-two punch in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who will look to wear down the Trojans run defense that has shown vulnerabilities, surrendering 108.5 yards per game.

Pass Catchers vs Secondary

USC receiver Makai Lemon has been a consistent threat, and his matchup against Notre Dame's defensive backs will be critical. The Trojans' offense is built on creating explosive plays, but the Irish secondary, led by ball-hawking safety Xavier Watts, is adept at limiting them.

For Notre Dame, receivers Jordan Faison and Will Pauling will look to exploit a USC secondary that has been susceptible to giving up big plays and is allowing a 141.87 opposing QB rating.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

This matchup heavily favors the Trojans. Their offensive line has been a fortress, allowing only four sacks all season. They will be tasked with containing a Notre Dame pass rush that has generated 15 sacks. Conversely, Notre Dame's offensive line has been more porous, surrendering nine sacks.

If USC's defensive front, which has racked up 20 sacks, can generate consistent pressure on Carr, it could stall the Irish offense and swing the field position battle.

USC vs Notre Dame Passing Props

Carr's passing yardage prop is set just below his team's per-game average (292.8), reflecting the strength of the USC pass rush. Maiava's line of 281.5 is significantly lower than USC's average (325.8), a clear nod to the elite Notre Dame secondary he's facing.

The heavy juice on Maiava's over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-152) suggests oddsmakers still expect him to find the end zone, but the lower yardage total indicates those scores may come on shorter fields or via red zone efficiency rather than deep bombs.

USC vs Notre Dame Rushing & Receiving Props

The rushing props for Notre Dame's backs are bullish, with Love's line set at a lofty 94.5 yards. This aligns with a game plan that likely involves pounding the rock to control the clock and exploit USC's weaker run defense.

Lemon's receiving prop of 85.5 yards is high but reflects his status as USC's top target. He'll need to win his one-on-one matchups against a tough secondary to hit that number. Love's Anytime TD prop at (-322) is heavily juiced, making him the most likely player in the game to score.

USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Picks & Prediction

This game projects as a battle of wills where Notre Dame's physicality and defensive prowess ultimately overcome USC's offensive firepower, especially in the challenging conditions of a late October night in South Bend.

The Trojans' offense is undeniably elite, averaging an incredible 8.31 yards per play. However, their defense is a significant liability, and they haven't faced a balanced, physical opponent like Notre Dame on the road. The Fighting Irish boast a top-tier defense that excels in key situations, holding opponents to a 36.5% conversion rate on third down and generating 12 takeaways.

The potential for wind and rain heavily favors Notre Dame's offensive philosophy. They are built to control the line of scrimmage and lean on a rushing attack that averages 172.7 yards per game. This will allow them to dominate time of possession and keep Maiava and the explosive USC offense on the sideline. While USC's offensive line has been stellar in pass protection (4 sacks allowed), Notre Dame's defensive front will be the best they've faced.

Historical trends strongly back the Irish, who are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against USC and have won five straight in this series at Notre Dame Stadium. The Trojans have also struggled in prime-time road games, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six. We're backing the home team to wear down the Trojans and pull away for a comfortable win.

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Picks:

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish -9.5 (-109)
• Under 61.5 (-110)
• Jeremiyah Love Over 94.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Public Betting Splits

Betting splits indicate a fascinating divide between the public and sharper bettors. The majority of public tickets are on the Irish, swayed by their home-field advantage and brand recognition. However, significant early sharp money came in on the USC Trojans, which caused the line to drop from an opening of ND (-13.5) down to (-9.5). 

This suggests professional bettors saw initial value in the Trojans' ability to score and keep the game closer than the opening number implied. Late money appears to be siding with Notre Dame, stabilizing the line.

Recent History: USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

These two rivals met last season, with Notre Dame securing a dominant 48-20 victory in Los Angeles. The story of that game was the Fighting Irish defense, which completely dismantled the Trojans' high-powered offense by forcing an incredible five turnovers.

The Irish also made a massive impact on special teams, highlighted by a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. That performance provides a clear blueprint for how Notre Dame can neutralize USC's speed and athleticism, a formula they will look to replicate at home.