Two of the divisional round playoff series managed to go the distance, one of which this Tigers vs. Mariners. The Detroit Tigers won Game 1 and Game 4. On Friday, they have their ace on the mound in Tarik Skubal.
That said, Skubal lost his first start in this series, so the Seattle Mariners know that it is possible to win the soon-to-be back-to-back AL Cy Young Winner. On the other side of the mound is George Kirby of the Mariners, who had a decent start in Game 1. He went five innings, striking out eight batters and giving up two earned runs.
The game is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET, with FOX on the call. Below, we will detail our favorite Tigers-Mariners picks for the game that will decide who moves on to face the Blue Jays in the ALCS.
| Tigers-Mariners Picks | Odds |
| George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 on Fanatics |
| Riley Greene Home Run | +560 on Fanatics |
Kirby, Once Again, Racks Up Ks vs. Mariners
Taking a pitcher prop in a do-or-die game always carries some risk, but Kirby should be expected to at least go five innings again, which should be plenty to get at least the six-strikeout number we need. He does have some ladder potential to 8+ strikeouts, but that is where the risk comes in, as he will get taken out at the first sign of trouble after the fifth inning.
The Tigers bats have not been the same to end the regular season, and that has mostly continued in the playoffs as well (outside of scoring nine runs in Game 4, of course), despite being one game away from the ALCS. They have struck out 26.2% of the time in the postseason, which would have been the second-highest strikeout rate in the regular season.
In terms of the six-strikeout number, Kirby has gone over this number in four straight games dating back to the regular season, and in both games against the Tigers this year. Going back to last year, he has managed six or more Ks against the Tigers in three out of four games, and the one game he missed he came close with five strikeouts in only 3.2 innings.
Kirby, after a slow start to the year in which he missed the first couple months due to injury, turned it on to end the season, striking out six or more batters in 11 of his last 16 games. In that stretch he had a strikeout rate of 27.3% and a K/9 of 10.18, two numbers that would have put him in the top 10-12 of all qualified pitchers. He should be able to get to at least six tonight.
Greene Manages to Clear the Fence in Seattle
Despite liking Kirby to reach six strikeouts, Riley Greene is the best play on the board for a home run tonight, especially at the nice price of +560. Hitting has been hard to come by for both teams in this series, but Greene has a solid two barrels through four games, and a barrel rate of 18.2%. He is one of only two batters on the Tigers with multiple barrels this entire postseason, with three total.
Both of those barrels in the ALDS came in the last game, in which he hit a home run an absurd 454 feet, and had another long flyout that traveled 387 feet. So, the hope here is that we are catching Greene, who had a solid regular season, during a hot stretch. He ended the season with an ISO rate of .235 and a barrel rate of 17.1%, which gave him a top 20 ISO rate and top 10-barrel rate.
Kirby is a good pitcher, but he struggles more against lefties than he does against righties. His HR/9 against LHH is 1.23, which is still a good number overall, but much worse than his 0.90 HR/9 against RHH. The Mariners bullpen has also given up a 9.4%-barrel rate to lefties over the last 30 days, so Greene could get one off them as well. He is worth a sprinkle for a home run play tonight.