The Week 7 Thursday Night Football game features an AFC North rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. This game did admittedly lose a lot of its luster when Bengals QB Joe Burrow went down in Week 2, but the Bengals brought in Joe Flacco to hopefully run the offense a little better.
On the other side of the field, so far so good with the Aaron Rodgers experiment in Pittsburgh as they currently lead the division by multiple games. For this article, we will detail three Steelers-Bengals props for the matchup.
| Steelers-Bengals Props | Odds |
| Chase Brown Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts | +114 on FanDuel |
| Noah Fant Over 27.5 Receiving Yards | -110 on BetMGM |
| Darnell Washington Over 22.5 Receiving Yards | -115 on BetMGM |
Fade Brown Thursday Night
The 12.5 number is a rushing attempt line that Chase Brown has not hit in any of the four games since Burrow went down, and that is obviously not a coincidence. In those four games, the most rush attempts he has had in a game is 10, having eight and nine in the last two games.
The Steelers defense struggled on the ground at the beginning of the year, but they have firmed it up over their last two games (Vikings before the bye, Browns last week). Sure, those are two banged up and horrible offensive lines, but the Bengals OL might be the worst in the NFL. All four RBs the last two games for the Steelers have gone under their rush attempts prop.
Not only that, but Brown is playing fewer snaps over the course of the season. In the first two games with Burrow, his snap rate was in the 70%, but three of the last four games it has been below 60%. Last week, he only played 54% of the snaps and only had nine carries.
He is also starting to lose more work to Samaje Perine, who has played 46% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks, which are both season highs for him. Perine also took 37.5% of the rush attempts last week, which is a season high for him as well. Fading Brown is the way to go for this game.
Take Fant Considering Bengals Injuries
While Noah Fant has only gone over this number in one of the four games so far this year (he missed two games due to injury), he has come close in all four games and is now set up to see a significant increase to his snap rate.
He has recorded 26, 28, 26 and 27 receiving yards in his four games this year, but keep in mind that was with both TEs Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson, who are both now out for this game. So, Fant had been consistently hovering around this number, and is now vaulted into the starting TE role, which we know Flacco loves to target.
Last week, in Flacco’s first week, Fant went for four receptions on four targets for 27 yards, which will probably close to his stat line this game. He is certainly not going to confuse anybody with the workload of a prime Travis Kelce at tight end, of course, but when he is on the field he is targeted. On the year, he has only run a route on 34% of the plays, but he has a 0.30 targets per route run, which is actually very good. For context, if you are looking for an elite wide receiver for fantasy purposes, you want the TPRR to be .25 or higher.
Another reason to be in on this play is due to the matchup, which is good against the Steelers. On the year, the Steelers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to TEs, on the fifth-most receptions. They have also allowed the most fantasy adjusted points to TEs on the year, and it has not been all through touchdowns either. Trust Fant to get to 30 yards tonight.
Washington Continues Ascent
For this one, are buying in on an increased role for Darnell Washington, who is playing increasingly. He has played 91% and 80% of the snaps the last two weeks, and the Steelers are much better when he is on the field. Overall, he has three receptions in each of the last two weeks and had five targets last week.
Washington is a third-year TE and a size-speed monster who is predominantly used for blocking, but they are starting to involve him more in the receiving game as well. Last week was the best game of his career, going for 62 yards on five targets, but it goes even deeper than that, and the matchup is fantastic.
Looking at Weeks 4 and 6 specifically (Steelers had a bye Week 5), Washington is basically second in every single receiving category on the Steelers behind DK Metcalf. He is second in receiving yards, total route % (technically Calvin Austin is ahead of him, but he is injured), target rate, targets per route run, yards per route run. Every meaningful statistic he is only behind Metcalf.
In terms of the matchup, the Bengals have allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs, the fifth-most targets and the second-most TDs. Look for Washington to have a good game tonight.