The NFL Week 7 action rolls along today with a scintilating cross-conference matchup as the Rams and Jaguars travel to London for an international showdown. Before kickoff arrives, make sure to follow along with these detailed Rams vs Jaguars betting picks for wagering on the action.
- Offensive Disparity Defines the Matchup: While the Rams (23.3 PPG) and Jaguars (23.2 PPG) have nearly identical scoring averages, Los Angeles boasts a far more efficient offense. The Rams generate over 40 more yards per game (375 vs. 331) and are significantly better on third down (40.3% vs. 35.4%), giving them a clear advantage in sustaining drives.
- Trends Point to a Rams Cover: The betting markets have established the Rams as 3-point favorites, a role they have thrived in. Los Angeles is a dominant 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine road games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Jaguars are just 3-16 straight up in their last 19 games as an underdog.
- Turnovers Will Be Decisive: Jacksonville's Achilles' heel has been its inability to protect the football, resulting in a league-worst -8 turnover differential. This glaring weakness makes them highly vulnerable against a disciplined Rams team and presents a key angle for bettors, with a high probability of a game-changing mistake.
A tale of two teams heading in opposite directions will converge at Wembley Stadium as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars meet for a pivotal Week 7 contest. The Rams enter their international business trip riding the high of a dominant 17-3 road victory over the Baltimore Ravens, a game where their defense suffocated a potent opponent. In stark contrast, the Jaguars are desperate to wash away the bitter taste of a 12-20 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a defeat that highlighted their ongoing offensive inconsistencies.
At the heart of this matchup are two quarterbacks guiding vastly different offensive ships. Veteran Matthew Stafford orchestrates a Rams attack that, on paper, is far more dangerous than its 23.3 points per game suggest.
Los Angeles moves the ball effectively, averaging 375 total yards per game, but now faces the critical challenge of executing without several key weapons. The injury report is a major storyline, with star receiver Puka Nacua (ankle) and running back Blake Corum (ankle) both did not participate in practice, threatening to sideline two of Stafford's most important playmakers.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence leads a Jaguars offense that mirrors the Rams in scoring (23.2 PPG) but struggles mightily with efficiency and ball control. The team's Achilles' heel has been turnovers, as evidenced by a league-worst -8 turnover differential. With Jacksonville's top defensive player, linebacker Devin Lloyd, also questionable, the pressure falls squarely on Lawrence to play a clean, mistake-free game and out-duel his Super Bowl-winning counterpart.
This London showdown presents a classic crossroads: one team looks to solidify its contender status, while the other fights to reverse a troubling trend.
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Rams vs Jaguars Betting Picks
The Rams and Jaguars will cross the pond for a Week 7 non-conference clash at the iconic Wembley Stadium in London. This international showdown pits two offenses that are nearly identical on the scoreboard. The Rams enter the contest averaging a slight edge with 23.3 points per game, just ahead of the Jaguars' 23.2 points per game.
However, a look beneath the surface reveals a significant disparity in offensive production. Los Angeles boasts a more potent attack, averaging 375 total yards per game compared to Jacksonville's 331 yards. This advantage extends to crucial situations, where the Rams convert on 40.3% of their third downs, while the Jaguars manage a 35.4% success rate. Ball security could be the deciding factor, as the Jaguars have struggled with a turnover-prone offense, posting a -8 turnover differential for the season.
Rams vs Jaguars Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Los Angeles Rams | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -154 | +130 |
| Total Points | Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110) |
Odds as of October 16 from MGM.
The NFL betting markets have positioned the Los Angeles Rams as 3-point road favorites for this London matchup. The Rams have been a dominant force when favored, going 8-1 (.889) in their last nine games in that role and an astounding 13-1 (.929) over their last 14 games as a road favorite. This contrasts sharply with Jacksonville's recent struggles as an underdog, where they have posted a 3-16 (.158) record over their last 19 games and are just 1-8 (.111) in their last nine as a home underdog.
From an against-the-spread perspective, Los Angeles has been a covering machine. They are 6-0 (1.000) ATS in their last six games as a road favorite and 8-1 (.889) ATS in their last nine road games overall. However, the Jaguars have shown resilience on their home turf, covering the spread in four of their last five home games.
Rams vs Jaguars Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting lines for this London game have seen significant adjustments since opening, particularly on the total, painting a clear picture of market expectations. The most dramatic shift has occurred on the Over/Under, which opened at a lofty 47.5 and has since plummeted a full three points to its current position of 44.5.
This substantial drop signals a strong wave of money on the under, likely influenced by Jacksonville's recent defensive stands at home. The under has cashed in four of the Jaguars' last five home games, a powerful trend that the market appears to be respecting more than the Rams' recent penchant for high-scoring contests.
Spread Movement: The spread opened with the Rams favored by 3.5 points. It has since ticked down to the key number of (-3). This half-point move toward the Jaguars suggests early bettors were happy to take Jacksonville with the hook (+3.5), forcing bookmakers to adjust. The line has now settled on a standard field goal, indicating a more balanced view of the matchup at the current number.
Moneyline Movement: Following the shift in the spread, the moneyline has also tightened. The Rams opened as (-179) favorites, but their price has dropped to (-154). Correspondingly, the Jaguars have seen their underdog price shrink from (+150) to (+130). This reflects the market's slightly increased confidence in Jacksonville's ability to pull off an outright upset, or at least keep the game close.
Total Movement: As noted, the three-point drop from 47.5 to 44.5 is the headline move. This is a classic indicator of sharp money driving a line down, anticipating a lower-scoring affair than initial projections. The first-half total has followed suit, dropping a full point from 23.5 to 22.5, reinforcing the expectation of a game script that favors defense and ball control over an offensive shootout.
Rams vs Jaguars Injury Report
Both teams are navigating significant injury concerns ahead of their trip to London, with several key starters appearing on the Week 7 report. The Rams' offense, in particular, is facing uncertainty, with multiple skill-position players' availability in question.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have seven players on their injury report, but the focus is squarely on the offensive side of the ball, where star receiver Puka Nacua and running back Blake Corum both missed Wednesday's practice.
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | WR | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | Nacua did not participate in practice, putting his status in serious doubt. His absence would be a massive blow to the Rams' passing game, removing their top target. This would elevate other receivers and could dramatically impact all player prop markets and the team's ability to cover the spread. |
| Blake Corum | RB | Ankle | Questionable | Corum also did not practice, clouding the backfield situation. If he's unable to play, the Rams will rely on a committee approach, making it difficult to trust any single running back for fantasy or prop bets. His absence would likely lead to a more pass-heavy game plan. |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | Hamstring | Questionable | Atwell was a limited participant in practice. With Nacua already banged up, Atwell's availability is crucial for stretching the field. If both are out or limited, the Rams' offense loses significant explosiveness, making the Under 44.5 an even more attractive bet. |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | Concussion | Expected to Play | Parkinson was a full participant and appears to have cleared the concussion protocol. His return provides a reliable target for the offense, especially if the top wide receivers are sidelined. |
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have six players on their report, with notable injuries on both defense and offense that could affect their game plan.
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lloyd | LB | Calf | Questionable | Lloyd's failure to practice on Wednesday is a major concern for the Jacksonville defense. As a key linebacker, his absence would weaken the middle of the field and could open up running lanes and short passes for the Rams. |
| Quintin Morris | TE | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | Morris also did not practice. While not a primary target, his absence would thin out the Jaguars' tight end depth and could limit their use of two-tight end sets, particularly in the red zone. |
| Dyami Brown | WR | Shoulder | Limited Participation In Practice | Brown was limited in practice. His role is primarily as a depth receiver, so his status is less impactful than others unless the Jaguars suffer further injuries at the position during the game. |
| Travon Walker | DE | Wrist | Expected to Play | Walker was a full participant and is on track to play. This is a crucial piece of good news for the Jaguars, as his presence is vital to their pass rush's ability to disrupt the Rams' offense. |
Rams vs Jaguars – Key Matchups to Watch
The outcome of this international game will likely hinge on a few critical one-on-one and unit-vs-unit battles. With both teams dealing with significant injuries, depth and adaptability will be tested on the Wembley Stadium turf.
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
The chess match between Rams QB Stafford and the Jaguars' pass defense will be a focal point. Stafford orchestrates an offense that generates an impressive 375 total yards per game and converts on 40.3% of its third downs. His ability to sustain drives and create big plays is the engine of the Rams' attack.
However, he'll be facing a Jaguars defense that will get a major boost if DE Travon Walker (wrist) is at full strength. Walker, who is expected to play, is Jacksonville's most disruptive pass rusher, and his ability to pressure Stafford will be paramount. If the Jaguars can't get to the quarterback, Stafford has the weapons—even with injuries—to exploit their secondary and control the game.
Running Game vs Run Defense
This matchup is defined by injuries on both sides. The Rams' backfield is uncertain, with Corum (ankle) questionable after not practicing. If he can't go, the load will fall squarely on Kyren Williams to establish a ground presence.
Their task could be made easier by a potentially significant absence for Jacksonville. The Jaguars' run defense could be without its anchor, LB Devin Lloyd (calf), who also missed practice. Without Lloyd patrolling the middle of the field, the Rams may find more running lanes than anticipated, which would be crucial for achieving offensive balance and keeping the Jaguars' pass rush honest.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
No matchup is more impacted by the injury report. The Rams' receiving corps is in a state of flux, with top target Nacua (ankle) and speedster Tutu Atwell (hamstring) both questionable. Nacua's absence, in particular, would be a massive blow, removing the team's most reliable chain-mover.
This places immense pressure on veteran receivers to win their one-on-one battles and carry the passing game. The return of TE Colby Parkinson from a concussion provides Stafford with a much-needed reliable target over the middle, but the explosiveness of the Rams' passing attack will be severely compromised if Nacua and Atwell are sidelined or limited.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
The battle in the trenches will be a contrast in styles and discipline. The Rams' offensive line has protected Stafford well and is part of a remarkably disciplined team that averages just 5.5 penalties per game. This unit will face a critical test against a Jaguars defensive front led by Travon Walker. For Jacksonville, generating pressure is non-negotiable.
They must disrupt the rhythm of a Rams' offense that has a significant negative time of possession differential (-05:03 per game), meaning they strike quickly. If the Jaguars, who have struggled with penalties (8.7 per game), can force pressure and create negative plays without drawing flags, they can swing the game in their favor.
Rams vs Jaguars Passing Props
The quarterback battle in London features two distinct narratives, reflected in their player prop markets. Matthew Stafford is expected to air it out for a potent Rams offense, while Trevor Lawrence faces lower expectations amidst his team's struggles with efficiency and ball security.
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Completions | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LA) | 251.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -149 | U +110) | 22.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 0.5 (O -105 | U -125) |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 225.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O +120 | U -161) | 21.5 (O -111 | U -118) | 0.5 (O -149 | U +115) |
Matthew Stafford Analysis
Stafford's passing yardage line is set at a respectable 251.5 yards, a testament to his role in piloting an offense that averages an impressive 375 total yards per game. However, bettors eyeing the over should proceed with caution. The potential absence of top target Nacua and deep threat Atwell would severely limit the explosiveness of the Rams' passing attack, making it much harder for Stafford to reach this number.
The market still heavily anticipates a productive day, pricing the over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns at -149. His interception line of 0.5 (Over -105) presents a near pick'em, suggesting a coin-flip chance he throws a pick against a Jaguars defense that has struggled to generate takeaways this season.
Trevor Lawrence Analysis
The prop market paints a much less optimistic picture for Lawrence. His passing yards total is a modest 225.5, reflecting a Jaguars offense that generates just 331 total yards per game.
The most telling line is his passing touchdown prop, where the under on 1.5 TDs is heavily juiced to -161, indicating a strong expectation that he will throw one or zero touchdowns. This aligns with Jacksonville's 23.2 points per game average and the overall downward trend of the game's total points line.
Perhaps the most glaring prop is his interception line. The over on 0.5 interceptions is priced at a steep -149, meaning the market overwhelmingly expects Lawrence to throw at least one pick. This is a direct reflection of Jacksonville's turnover woes, as evidenced by their league-worst -8 turnover differential.
Rams vs Jaguars Rushing & Receiving Props
The player prop market for this game is heavily influenced by injuries and recent performance, particularly for the skill position players on both teams. The potential absence of key Rams players could shift workloads, while the Jaguars' offensive playmakers face modest lines reflecting their season-long struggles.
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams (LA) | 70.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | N/A | Yes -137 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) | 59.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | 2.5 (O -118 | U -111) | Yes +105 |
| Brian Thomas (JAX) | N/A | 66.5 (O -115 | U -118) | 5.5 (O +115 | U -154) | Yes +157 |
| Travis Hunter (JAX) | N/A | 40.5 (O -118 | U -111) | 3.5 (O -167 | U +130) | Yes +305 |
Los Angeles Rams Analysis
The Rams' backfield props are centered on Williams, who could be in for a heavy workload. His rushing line is set at 70.5 yards, a number that could be very attainable, especially if fellow running back Blake Corum (ankle) is sidelined.
With Corum questionable, Williams would become the undisputed workhorse against a Jaguars defense that may be missing key linebacker Devin Lloyd. Williams is also the odds-on favorite among skill players to find the end zone, with his Anytime TD Scorer prop priced at (-137).
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
The props for Jacksonville's playmakers reflect an offense that has struggled to find consistency. Travis Etienne Jr. faces a modest rushing line of 59.5 yards. His receiving prop is set at 2.5 receptions, indicating he'll be a factor in the short passing game. At (+105) to score a touchdown, he offers plus-money value for bettors who believe he can break the plane.
Among the receivers, Brian Thomas has the highest yardage prop at 66.5 yards, positioning him as the Jaguars' primary deep threat. Interestingly, the market is skeptical of his volume, as the under on his 5.5 receptions prop is heavily juiced to (-154). Elsewhere, Travis Hunter is projected to be a key possession receiver, with the over on his 3.5 receptions prop set at a steep (-167), even though his yardage line is a more modest 40.5 yards.
Rams vs Jaguars Picks & Prediction
In a matchup defined by contrasting efficiency and discipline, the smart money points toward the Los Angeles Rams handling their business in London. While the Rams are dealing with significant injuries to their skill positions, their fundamental advantages in offensive production and ball security are too substantial to ignore. The Jaguars' season has been undermined by self-inflicted wounds, epitomized by a league-worst -8 turnover differential and a propensity for penalties (8.7 per game). Stafford, even without his full arsenal, is a veteran quarterback who can exploit a mistake-prone opponent.
The betting trends paint a lopsided picture. The Rams are a covering machine on the road, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine away games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six as a road favorite. This dominance is juxtaposed with Jacksonville's futility as an underdog, where they are a dismal 3-16 straight up in their last 19 games and just 1-8 straight up in their last nine as a home underdog.
Conversely, the market has zero faith in Trevor Lawrence to play a clean game, pricing his interception prop at a steep (-149). This international game often comes down to which team is more prepared and disciplined, and that edge clearly belongs to Los Angeles. The Rams average just 5.5 penalties per game compared to Jacksonville's 8.7, a significant difference that could prove decisive in a neutral-site environment.
While the total presents a fascinating clash—the Rams hit the over in their last five games after wins, while the Under cashed in four of the Jaguars' last five home games—we're following the sharp money. The line has plummeted from 47.5 to 44.5, a massive move indicating professional bettors are banking on a low-scoring affair.
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Fearless Forecast:
- Against the Spread (ATS): Rams -3 (-110). The Rams' track record as a road favorite is impeccable, and the Jaguars consistently fail to show up as underdogs. Lay the field goal with the more disciplined and efficient team.
- Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-110). Follow the significant line movement and bet on the Rams' injuries and the Jaguars' offensive incompetence to keep this a lower-scoring game.
- Lock of the Week: Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions (-149). This is the strongest value on the board. The market is screaming that a turnover is coming, aligning perfectly with the Jaguars' turnover woes.
Public Betting Splits
The betting public and sharp money are telling two different stories for this London showdown, with a significant divergence of opinion on the spread and a massive consensus on the total. An analysis of over 153,000 wagers reveals where the money is flowing.
Total Points (Over/Under 44.5): A Tsunami of Sharp Money
This market shows the most lopsided action. An astounding 94.41% of the money wagered on the total is on the Under, coming from over 90% of the total bets. This overwhelming consensus from both large and small bettors explains why the line plummeted from 47.5 to 44.5. The public is barely represented, with just 5.59% of the handle backing the Over.
Spread (Rams -3 / Jaguars +3): Public vs. Sharp Divide
The point spread reveals a classic sharp vs. public disagreement. While more bets (59.12%) are on the Jacksonville Jaguars +3, the money is even more telling, with 62.61% of the handle backing the home underdog. This indicates that larger, more confident wagers are on the Jaguars to keep the game within a field goal.
Moneyline (Rams -154 / Jaguars +130): The Public Loves the Favorite
The moneyline shows the public's overwhelming confidence in a Rams victory. Los Angeles is attracting a massive 82.1% of all moneyline tickets. However, the Jaguars are drawing 30.42% of the total handle from just 17.9% of the bets, a strong indication that the sharper, bigger bets are backing a Jacksonville upset at plus-money odds.
Recent History: Rams vs Jaguars
As non-conference opponents who rarely cross paths, the Rams and Jaguars have no recent history, making this Week 7 clash in London a fresh slate for both franchises. Instead of a rematch, this game will be defined by the current form and momentum each team brings across the Atlantic.
The Rams are coming off a convincing 17-3 road victory over the Baltimore Ravens, where their defense put on a dominant performance, holding a tough opponent to just a single field goal on their home turf. In stark contrast, the Jaguars are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 12-20 home loss to the Seahawks, a defeat that highlighted their ongoing offensive inconsistencies.
This matchup at Wembley Stadium offers the Jaguars a chance to reset and rebound, while the Rams will look to build on the momentum from their impressive recent win.