The Red River Rivalry resumes this afternoon with two of college football's classic programs going head-to-head at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. Fans and gamblers alike can read up here for a detailed breakdown of the matchup and get the best Oklahoma vs. Texas betting picks for wagering on the matchup.
- The Red River Rivalry features two SEC contenders, with the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners facing a Texas Longhorns team looking to rebound from its first loss.
- Oklahoma's defense has been historically dominant, ranking second in the FBS in scoring defense, creating a monumental challenge for Texas quarterback Arch Manning.
- The betting market has seen a dramatic shift, with the point spread moving a full 10 points from its opening number, signaling major sharp action on the Sooners.
One of college football’s most storied rivalries gets its first SEC chapter as Oklahoma and Texas clash in the historic Red River Showdown. This year’s edition is dripping with intrigue, pitting Oklahoma’s suffocating defense against a talented but inconsistent Texas offense led by quarterback Arch Manning. The Sooners have steamrolled their first five opponents, while the Longhorns are looking to prove their mettle after a disappointing road loss last week.
Manning enters this high-pressure environment having thrown for 1,151 yards and 11 touchdowns against five interceptions, completing 60.1% of his passes. His poise will be tested like never before against an Oklahoma pass rush that has been a wrecking ball this season. For the Sooners, their offense has been ruthlessly efficient, complementing a defense that is allowing a meager 8.3 points per game.
This article will break down the odds, analyze critical matchups, and provide our best betting picks for this pivotal Week 7 showdown. With SEC West implications on the line, the battle at the Cotton Bowl is more than just for bragging rights; it’s a crucial step toward a conference championship appearance.
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Oklahoma vs. Texas Betting Picks
The undefeated Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns in a neutral-site rivalry game with massive conference implications. This classic showdown will unfold at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET, with ABC handling the national broadcast. The weather forecast calls for perfect football conditions: partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 78°F with light winds, ensuring neither team will have to battle the elements.
Oklahoma vs Texas Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Oklahoma Sooners | Texas Longhorns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -104 | -115 |
| Total Points | Over 43.5 (-108) | Under 43.5 (-112) |
Based on the current moneyline odds, the market gives the Longhorns a slight edge. The total of 43.5 points is a significant drop from its opening number, reflecting the dominance of both defenses, particularly Oklahoma's, which has shut down every opponent this season.
Oklahoma vs Texas Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting line for this game has seen one of the most dramatic shifts of the season. Texas opened as substantial 11.5-point favorites, with the total set at a lofty 56.5. However, the market has completely flipped. The spread has crashed through key numbers down to Texas (-1.5), while the total has plummeted by 13 points to 43.5.
This seismic movement is a clear indicator of sharp money pouring in on the Oklahoma Sooners and the under. The reasons are twofold: Oklahoma's defense has proven to be an elite, top-five unit in the nation, allowing just 193 yards per game.
Conversely, the Texas offense has stalled in recent weeks, particularly in the red zone, and struggled against its first real test last week. The initial line was a significant overvaluation of Texas based on preseason expectations, and the market has aggressively corrected in favor of the team in better form. Bettors who backed Oklahoma early were rewarded with incredible value, but the current line suggests this is now a coin-flip game.
Oklahoma vs Texas – Key Matchups to Watch
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Manning (60.1% comp, 230.2 yds/gm, 11 TD, 5 INT, 151.1 rating) faces the toughest test of his young career. Oklahoma's pass defense is a statistical monster, allowing a mere 139.5 yards per game through the air and holding opposing quarterbacks to a paltry 93.5 rating. The Sooners' pass rush has generated an incredible 21 sacks, and their ability to create pressure will be the deciding factor against a Texas offensive line that has surrendered nine sacks this season.
Running Game vs Run Defense
Texas has found success on the ground, averaging 172.8 rushing yards per game. However, they'll be running into a brick wall. Oklahoma's front seven is arguably the best in the country, permitting just 64 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2 yards per carry. If the Longhorns can't establish a ground game to keep the Sooners' pass rush honest, their offense could become one-dimensional and predictable.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
Texas receivers Ryan Wingo (4 TDs) and Parker Livingstone have been the primary weapons for Manning. They will be challenged by an Oklahoma secondary that smothers receivers, allowing a completion percentage of just 52%. The battle on the perimeter will be physical, and the ability of Wingo and Livingstone to create separation against press coverage will be crucial for any offensive success Texas hopes to have.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
This is the premier mismatch of the game. Oklahoma's defensive line has lived in opposing backfields, racking up 41 tackles for loss and 21 sacks. The Texas offensive line has been solid but not spectacular. If they can't protect Arch Manning and give him a clean pocket to survey the field, it will be a long day for the Longhorns' offense, likely leading to drive-killing sacks and turnovers.
Oklahoma vs Texas Player Props: Passing
Manning's passing yards prop is set at 206.5, well below his season average of 230.2. This reflects the brutal matchup against Oklahoma's top-ranked pass defense. The Sooners have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards this season.
The under on this prop holds significant value. Similarly, the juice on his under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-245) indicates oddsmakers expect a low-scoring affair where finding the end zone through the air will be a monumental task.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning (TEX) | 21.5 (O -116 | U -114) | N/A | N/A | Yes +154 | No -200 |
| Ryan Wingo (TEX) | N/A | 44.5 (O -115 | U -114) | N/A | Yes +183 | No -245 |
| DeAndre Moore (TEX) | N/A | 40.5 (O -114 | U -117) | N/A | Yes +303 | No -450 |
| Parker Livingstone (TEX) | N/A | 30.5 (O -114 | U -114) | N/A | Yes +273 | No -380 |
Ryan Wingo's receiving prop is set at 44.5 yards. As the Longhorns' top target, he will likely see bracket coverage and face Oklahoma's best defensive backs all day. Given the expected pressure on Manning and the strength of the Sooners' secondary, taking the under on his yardage is a strong play. Arch Manning's rushing prop of 21.5 yards is intriguing; with the pocket likely collapsing often, he may be forced to scramble more than usual, making the over a viable option.
Oklahoma vs Texas Picks & Prediction
This edition of the Red River Rivalry is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest, and all signs point toward the Sooners not only covering the spread but winning outright. The massive 10-point line move is the most telling factor, indicating that sharp, respected bettors have overwhelmingly sided with Oklahoma after the market opened with a clear overvaluation of Texas.
The Sooners' defense is not just good; it's statistically one of the most dominant units in recent memory, ranking second nationally in points allowed (8.3) and first in third-down defense (17.4%). They excel at creating negative plays, with 21 sacks and 41 tackles for loss through five games.
This spells trouble for a Texas offense that has shown cracks, particularly in situational football. The Longhorns are converting just 34.4% of their third downs, a number that will likely plummet against this Oklahoma defense. The key matchup is in the trenches, where Oklahoma's ferocious pass rush should overwhelm a Texas offensive line that has been good, but not great.
Manning will be under duress all afternoon, forcing him into the mistakes that have plagued him at times this season. While Texas has a strong defense of its own, Oklahoma's offense has been far more efficient, especially in the red zone, where they score on 100% of their trips. Given the defensive nature of this game, the under is also a prime pick. Unders have hit in three of the last five games for both teams, and with a total that has already dropped 13 points, the market confirms a low-scoring battle is expected.
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Picks:
- Oklahoma Sooners +1.5 (-115)
- Under 43.5 (-112)
- Player Prop: Arch Manning Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Public Betting Splits
Public betting data indicates a classic split between casual bettors and professional sharps. Approximately 60% of the betting tickets are on the Texas Longhorns, as the public is often drawn to the name brand and small home-state spread. However, a staggering 70% of the total money wagered has been placed on the Oklahoma Sooners, aligning with the dramatic line movement and suggesting that larger, more respected wagers are backing Oklahoma's dominant defense.
Recent History: Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns
While these two programs have a long and storied history, their most recent meeting was in 2024, a contest that resulted in a decisive blowout victory for the Longhorns. That game serves as a powerful motivating factor for Oklahoma, who will be looking to avenge last year's humbling defeat. The Sooners enter this matchup as the undefeated and higher-ranked team, determined to reverse the narrative and assert their dominance in their new SEC rivalry.