Week 7 of the college football season is here, and a major Big Ten battle is set to kick off soon. Before the action gets underway, check out this breakdown featuring the best Ohio State vs. Illinois betting pick for today's massive game.
- The Ohio State Buckeyes bring the nation's top-ranked scoring defense (6.3 PPG) to Champaign to face a potent Illinois Fighting Illini offense averaging 37 PPG.
- The betting line has moved a full point in Ohio State's favor, shifting from (-13.5) to (-14.5), signaling strong backing for the road favorite.
- The critical matchup pits Ohio State's ferocious pass rush against an Illinois offensive line that has surrendered 19 sacks in six games.
A classic Big Ten showdown is on tap as the undefeated, top-ranked Ohio State travels to face a formidable Illinois squad in a crucial conference battle. This contest features a fascinating clash of styles, pitting one of the nation's most dominant defensive units against an explosive and efficient offense looking to pull off a monumental upset on its home turf.
The quarterback duel will be front and center. Ohio State's Julian Sayin has been a model of efficiency, completing an incredible 80.2% of his passes for 1,313 yards and a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Across the field, Illinois' Luke Altmyer has been equally impressive, protecting the football with a stellar 12-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 73.6% of his throws for 1,573 yards. The primary question is whether Altmyer can maintain his poise against a Buckeyes defense that has suffocated every opponent it has faced.
This preview will dissect the betting odds, analyze key player matchups, and provide data-driven predictions to help you make informed wagers. We'll explore where the value lies in the point spread, total, and player prop markets for this compelling Big Ten matchup.
Sign-up with the linked BetMGM bonus code TSN150 or TSN1500 to get $150 in bonus bets or claim a $1,500 First Bet Offer, depending on your location at sign-up.
Best Ohio State vs. Illinois Betting Picks
The undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) will look to continue their dominant season on the road against the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1). The action kicks off from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL, at 12:00 pm ET. The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with winds of 10-15 mph and a slight chance of rain, which could be a minor factor in the passing and kicking games.
Ohio State vs Illinois Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Ohio State Buckeyes | Illinois Fighting Illini |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -14.5 (-106) | +14.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -654 | +471 |
| Total Points | Over 49.5 (-112) | Under 49.5 (-108) |
The moneyline odds imply a significant advantage for the road favorites. Based on the current lines, the Buckeyes possess a vig-free win probability of 83.2%, while the Fighting Illini are given just a 16.8% chance to pull off the upset at home. Both teams have been excellent for bettors this season, with Ohio State boasting a 4-1 record against the spread (ATS) and Illinois covering in five of its six contests (5-1 ATS).
Ohio State vs Illinois Odds Movement & Analysis
This college football betting line opened with the Buckeyes favored by 13.5 points, and early action has pushed the spread up a full point to (-14.5). This movement indicates that the majority of money wagered has been on the Buckeyes, forcing sportsbooks to adjust the line to encourage betting on the home underdog. Crossing the key number of 14 is significant, making an Illinois cover slightly more attainable.
The total has remained steady at 49.5 points. Despite both offenses averaging over 37 points per game, Ohio State's defensive prowess is clearly commanding respect from the market. The Buckeyes' defense allows a paltry 5 points per game, suggesting a difficult path for the Illinois offense and creating a classic battle between an explosive unit and an immovable object.
Ohio State vs Illinois – Key Matchups to Watch
Julian Sayin vs Illinois Pass Defense
Sayin is orchestrating the Ohio State offense with veteran poise, posting a staggering 197 passer rating. He'll face an opportunistic Illinois secondary that has a +5 turnover differential but has been susceptible to big plays, allowing 276 passing yards per game. The key for Illinois will be generating pressure, but the Buckeyes' offensive line has been a fortress, allowing only two sacks all season.
Illinois Rushing Game vs Ohio State Run Defense
This matchup heavily favors the Buckeyes. The Fighting Illini have struggled to establish a consistent ground game, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. They now face an Ohio State defensive front that is arguably the best in the nation, allowing a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry and, most impressively, zero rushing touchdowns through five games. If Illinois can't find some success on the ground, its offense will become one-dimensional and vulnerable.
Jeremiah Smith & Carnell Tate vs Illinois Secondary
Ohio State's star wideouts, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, present a monumental challenge for any secondary. Both are elite route-runners capable of creating separation and winning contested catches. The Illinois defensive backs have held their own for much of the season, but haven't faced a receiving corps with this combination of speed, size, and skill. Expect the Buckeyes to test the Illini deep downfield early and often.
Illinois Offensive Line vs Ohio State Pass Rush
This is the trench battle that will likely decide the game. The Illinois offensive line has been the offense's Achilles' heel, surrendering 19 sacks in six games. They are now tasked with blocking an Ohio State defensive line that has racked up 14 sacks and consistently harasses opposing quarterbacks. If Illinois cannot give Luke Altmyer a clean pocket, their high-powered passing attack will be neutralized.
Ohio State vs Illinois Passing Props
Sayin's passing yardage prop is set just below his season average of 262.6 (270.5 passing yards), a reasonable line against a defense that can be beaten through the air. Altmyer's prop of 210.5 yards is significantly lower than his 262.2 average, a clear reflection of the brutal matchup he faces against Ohio State's top-ranked pass defense, which allows a mere 137.5 yards per game.
Ohio State vs Illinois Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Antyime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Jackson (OSU) | 72.5 (O -116 | U -115) | N/A | N/A | Yes -169 | No +130 |
| Jeremiah Smith (OSU) | N/A | 91.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | Yes -188 | No +145 |
| Carnell Tate (OSU) | N/A | 68.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | Yes -122 | No -108 |
| Hank Beatty (ILL) | N/A | 60.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | Yes +183 | No -250 |
Smith's receiving prop is set at a lofty 91.5 yards, but he has the talent to exceed that number against an Illinois secondary that has shown vulnerabilities. For Illinois, Hank Beatty's line of 60.5 receiving yards will be a tough mark to hit against a secondary that locks down opposing receivers. Bo Jackson's rushing prop of 72.5 yards looks appealing, as he should find running lanes against an Illini defense allowing 4.2 yards per carry.
Ohio State vs Illinois Picks & Prediction
The Buckeyes have looked every bit the part of a national champion, combining an explosive offense with a truly suffocating defense that ranks first in the nation in scoring (6.3 PPG) and total yards allowed (228.3 YPG). However, laying over two touchdowns on the road in a conference game is always a tall order. The Fighting Illini are a battle-tested 5-1 team with an offense that can put up points and, most importantly, a +5 turnover margin that could be the great equalizer in this contest.
The game's pivotal dynamic will unfold in the trenches. The Illinois offensive line has been porous, allowing 19 sacks, and now faces an Ohio State defensive front that lives in the backfield. Quarterback Altmyer has been fantastic when kept clean (12 TDs, 0 INT), but he will be under duress all afternoon. If Illinois can scheme up quick passes and establish any semblance of a running game, it can shorten the game and stay competitive.
The windy conditions could also play a small role, potentially limiting the vertical passing game and favoring the team with the superior ground attack and defense—both of which belong to Ohio State. While an outright upset seems unlikely, Illinois has been an underdog's dream at 5-1 ATS and has the offensive firepower to score just enough to keep this game inside the big number.
New users can claim the DraftKings promo code to secure an offer to bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets (if your first bet wins).
Picks:
- Illinois Fighting Illini +14.5 (-115)
- Under 49.5 (-108)
- Bo Jackson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Public Betting Splits
According to market reports, public bettors are heavily backing the Ohio State Buckeyes on the moneyline, trusting the undefeated powerhouse to secure the win. However, sharp money appears to disagree on the spread, with professional bettors reportedly backing the Illinois Fighting Illini to cover the (+14.5) points at home. The sharps are also leaning towards the Under 49.5, aligning with the expectation that Ohio State's defense will control the game's tempo.
Recent History: Ohio State vs Illinois
Recent history in this series has been completely one-sided. The Buckeyes have dominated the Fighting Illini, winning the last nine consecutive meetings. Illinois has not defeated Ohio State in over a decade, and many of the recent matchups have been decided by double-digit margins. The Fighting Illini will be looking to break a long and frustrating streak against their Big Ten rival.