Sunday NFL matchups include the Vikings-Lions, Falcons-Patriots, Colts-Steelers, Chiefs-Bills, and finishes off on primetime the Seahawks and Commanders. Below, we explain our favorite NFL Week 9 picks.
NFL Week 9 Picks and Odds
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| NFL Pick | Odds |
| Tyler Warren Over 54.5 Receiving Yards | -118 on BetMGM |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards | -115 on BetMGM |
| Josh Allen Over 41.5 Rushing Yards | -114 on FanDuel |
Warren Has Success vs. Steelers
Tyler Warren has such a solid and consistent role for the Indianapolis Colts that he is an easy player to back, especially in this matchup. He has reached at least 60 yards in five of eight games, averaging 61.5 receiving yards per game. While he is coming off a somewhat quiet game with only 53 receiving yards, but that was against a bad Titans team where the Colts ran the ball up and down the field against them.
The Colts are certainly capable of doing that in most matchups with how good Jonathan Taylor is, but the Steelers should be able to keep up a little bit more than the Titans. Speaking of the Steelers, they are a fantastic matchup for tight ends. We just saw Tucker Kraft explode for 143 yards and two touchdowns against them, and overall, five of seven TEs have hit their receiving over against the Steelers. One that missed was David Njoku who got hurt in that game, but backup TE Harold Fannin Jr. Blew up for 81 yards in that game.
On the year, the Steelers have given up the most receiving yards for TEs in the entire NFL at 79.3 yards per game. They have not gotten any better either, allowing the second-most over their last four games, but more yards per game at 86. Warren reaches 55 on Sunday.
St. Brown Has Big Game Sunday
While Amon-Ra St. Brown has not quite had the ceiling games this year, as he has only recorded 100+ yards in two games this year, and has only hit the 78 number in three games, he has hit 77 one game and 70 in another, so he has come close. Overall, he averages 76.9 receiving yards per game, but is set up to have a big game against the Vikings.
The Vikings defense was great against the pass to start the year, but have been getting smoked recently. They have allowed six of the last nine WRs against them go over their receiving prop, with some huge performances.
In the last couple games, D.K. Metcalf had 126 receiving yards against them, then two weeks ago both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith went off for over 100, with 121 for Brown and 183 for Smith, and then last week Ladd McConkey had 88 yards on an o/u of 56.5. St. Brown has had a ton of success against the Vikings in his career, and it is no surprise why.
The Vikings style of defense is to be blitz heavy (they blitz at the highest rate in the NFL), and they play with two high safeties deep at the highest rate in the NFL as well. Unfortunately for them, St. Brown has fantastic numbers against the blitz and against two-high safety coverages.
Over the last two years, Amon Ra has 106, 144, 112 and 77 receiving yards against the Vikings. The game with 77 yards the Lions dominated that game and won by 22 points, as Sam Darnold was 18/41 and threw for 166 yards. If the Vikings offense can somewhat keep up, this prop should be safe.
Allen Uses Legs against Chiefs
The logic for this play is backing Josh Allen to run more in a big matchup, which is what he tends to do, in a good matchup against the Chiefs. Dating back to 2020, Josh Allen has gone over 41.5 rushing yards in three of five regular season games against the Chiefs, including 55 yards against them last year. In the playoffs, it's over in 1/2 games but one of those games he had exactly 39 yards, so he was close.
Even if we just look at the previous two seasons against the Chiefs, he averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game and 11.3 rushing attempts. He averages 6.9 rush attempts and 34.8 yards in all other games.
The Chiefs have also been a good matchup for QB rushing props. They've allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, and the 8th-most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to QBs via the rush. They have also allowed four of six mobile QBs go over their rushing prop against them.
Marcus Mariota did miss last week with 28 yards on an o/u of 30.5, which just means those QBs were four of five before that game. That includes Lamar Jackson who went over even in game in which he got hurt in and only played 69% of the snaps. Allen should scamper with success Sunday.