MLB Home Run Picks, Betting Odds for Tuesday: Trust Springer at Steinbrenner Field

Tuesday's are fun during the MLB season, with a bunch of sportsbooks having a bunch of home run specific MLB home run specific betting promotions, highlighted by FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday.

So, with that thought in mind, please read below for our favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, September 16th and be sure to check out our full look MLB betting guide as postseason races heat up.

Springer Goes Long for Blue Jays

While we typically love to target the lefty bats when playing at the Rays home stadium of Steinbrenner Field, we are rolling with the right-handed Springer for our first play of the day. Despite it being a better venue for lefties due to the short right field porch, this is still among the best home run games of the day from a venue + weather perspective, with a +12% home run index.

This is also a starting pitching matchup that should favor Springer, going up against Ryan Pepiot. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats overall, which drops down to every 19 ABs against RHH. Generally, we like for that number to be at 20 at-bats or below, which puts Pepiot in range for a pitcher home run target.

While Springer is not the hottest batter in the MLB over the last week, he does have a solid three barrels and nine HardHits in the last seven days. He did not go yard yesterday, but he did manage to have the hardest hit of the game, a lineout that was smoked at 111.2 mph exit velocity, just needed a higher launch angle. He gets it right tonight.

Ramirez Homers at Coors Field

Unsurprisingly, another venue that is solid for home runs tonight is Coors Field in Colorado, which is typically the case due to the high altitude. For today, Coors has a +13% home run index.

The Rockies are also throwing out a starting pitcher in Kyle Freeland, who does not have horrible home run specific numbers against him, but is a still a pitcher to target for home runs. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 24 at-bats to righties, which is below the ideal 20 number, but still within a solid range. More than that, however, is that he allows an 8% barrel rate, 49% HardHit rate, and 56.50% combined fly-ball + line-drive rate.

Ramirez has not done a great job barreling the ball up recently, with only one barrel over the last week, he does have a solid nine HardHits. That also includes having the day off yesterday, so it is really nine HardHits in his last six games. In a positive venue against a weak pitcher, look for Ramirez to hit one tonight.

Henderson Clears Fence For O's

While Henderson has been a pretty big disappointment after a breakout season last year, he is a good option to homer tonight. For starters, he has been hitting very well recently, with 11 HardHits and two barrels over the last week. Both those barrels actually came within his last four games, with seven HardHits in those four games as well.

This game is being played at the White Sox home stadium of Rate Field, which is a hitter-friendly park. Overall, this game is similar to the other two games discussed, with a solid +14% home run index.

Shane Smith is pitching for the White Sox, who has decent stuff as a pitcher, but can be susceptible to the long ball. He has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to LHH on the year, which drops down slightly to every 19.50 at-bats over the last five weeks. In this stretch, he has allowed an absurd 63% HardHit rate and 60% combined line-drive + fly-ball rate, which is a bad combination. Henderson takes him yard tonight.