The last game of the divisional round series takes place tonight between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. It has been a fun series, with the Brewers winning both games in Milwaukee, while the Cubs went 2-0 back home in Chicago. So, this means that the home team has won every game so far.
Both starting pitchers have not yet been confirmed by the time of this writing on Saturday morning. That said, the projected starters are Shota Imanaga on the Cubs side, and Jacob Misiorowski on the Brewers side. Imanaga pitched Game 2 for the Cubs and did not fare well, going 2.2 innings giving up two home runs and four earned runs.
On the Brewers side, Misiorowski has made one appearance in this series, and he went three innings without giving up a run. Unsurprisingly, the Brewers are the decently favored team here, offered at -145 on the moneyline at BetMGM. The game is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET with TBS on the call, and we will detail our favorite picks for Cubs vs. Brewers tonight.
| Cubs-Brewers Picks | Odds |
| Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs | -130 on FanDuel |
| Michael Busch Home Run | +365 on Fanatics |
| Jackson Chourio Home Run | +500 on FanDuel |
Trust Brewers Offense at Home
Sometimes it is just as simple as playing in front of your home crowd, as the Brewers have scored nine and seven runs in the two games played in Milwaukee. The two games played in Chicago? Three and zero runs, in Games 3 & 4, respectively. Now, they get to head home and face a starting pitcher that they have had success against in the past.
As mentioned earlier, Imanga is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and we just saw him get rocked by this Brewers team in Game 2. As detailed above, he went 2.2 innings in that game, allowing five hits and four earned runs, allowing two home runs as well. While it is unlikely he is going to go deep into this game, of course, it is also likely that the Brewers can get a couple runs off him in his limited innings.
Let's not forget that this is a Brewers team that had the best record in MLB over the course of the regular season, which was mostly since their offense was fantastic. From July 1st and on, the Brewers had the third-best wRC+ in MLB and were even better at home. Even though pitching gets tighter and tighter the later we go into series, and Game 5 is a do-or-die game, we still like the Brewers to put up runs tonight. Try making this pick with one of the MLB betting boosts on FanDuel.
Busch Continues Hot Stretch, Goes Yard
Along with the Brewers team total, we will also provide our favorite home run play on each side, with Busch as the best home run bet on the board for this game tonight.
Busch has been on a roll this postseason, hitting four home runs total, with an absurd .500 ISO rate and 25%-barrel rate (he has 5 barrels total). Busch has gone yard in two straight games in this series, and that was in at Wrigley Field with horrible home run conditions. For context, there were relatively heavy winds blowing in and cold temperatures in both games in Wrigley, and Busch still managed to go yard in both of those games.
He had three total HardHits in Game 3, and one HardHit in Game 4 that turned into a home run. While it is an unknown how long Misiorowski is going to be in the game, the strategy here with Busch is to target a batter that is red-hot at the plate as opposed to targeting a specific batter-pitcher matchup or anything like that. Trust Busch to continue this stretch tonight.
Chourio Goes Deep in Milwaukee, Again
Despite missing some time this series due to hamstring tightness, Jackson Chourio is second on the Brewers in total HardHits with seven total, two behind Christian Yelich with fewer at-bats as well. Chourio left Game 1 early due to this tightness in his hammy, but he returned in Game 2 and managed to hit a home run.
While the Brewers offense cooled off in Chicago, it was not a horrible two game stretch for Chourio specifically. He did not do much in Game 3, but in Game 4 he had two HardHits, including the hardest hit of the entire game off Matthew Boyd, a single that was 111.5 mph off the bat. He also had a flyout that was 98.9 mph EV and a 33-degree launch angle, which could have had home run potential in a different environment.
Now, he heads back home to Milwaukee, where he had a combined five HardHits in Games 1 & 2, and that includes being taken out early in both of those games as well to not make the hamstring situation any worse. Whether it is off Imanaga or the bullpen again, Chourio has a good opportunity to clear a fence tonight and is a solid bet at +500 odds.