The Week 6 college football slate is ripe with teams on upset alert. I’ve compiled my three favorite plus-money picks to target, starting with Florida State, who sport the juiciest odds of the bunch.
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College Football Upset Picks for Week 6
The Seminoles are back home for an ACC showdown with #3 Miami, and while everyone is itching to crown the Hurricanes a legit National Title contender, I think we need to pump the brakes just a bit.
Florida State Stuns Miami
Let’s start with who Miami has actually beaten. On paper, it looks impressive with victories over two ranked teams and a perennial SEC contender, but you can poke holes in each of the wins.
Notre Dame has since lost again since the Canes beat them, while USF was in the middle of the toughest starting stretch in college football this season. The latest victory over Florida was uninspiring, as Miami put up a season-low 26 points. The Gators offense is anemic and never challenged the Canes defense, but that won’t be the case versus Florida State.
The Seminoles lead the league in points per game and total offense. They average significantly more yards per play than Miami (7.4 vs 5.8), and boast better efficiency on third down and in the red zone.
The big question is can Florida State’s defense hold up? The Seminoles were dominant in their Week 1 upset victory over #10 Alabama, but sprung a leak last week against Virginia’s potent attack.
Carson Beck leads a strong Hurricanes offense into Tallahassee, but there are reasons to want to fade the former Georgia QB. This will mark his first true road start of the season, and last year he performed significantly worse on the road than at home.
Beck had a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-INT ratio in Athens, but threw four more picks (7) than touchdowns (3) on the road. His sack rate doubled as a visitor, leading to his only two losses of the campaign.
Per the trends, Florida State is worth backing both on the spread and to win outright. The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS as a home underdog versus ranked opponents under Mike Norvell, with four outright victories.
Iowa State Survives Cincinnati
Last, but not least, I’ll gladly buy #14 Iowa State at plus-money versus Cincinnati. The Cyclones are off to a perfect 5-0 start, and have trailed for less than 30 seconds all season long.
Iowa State’s success is largely thanks to a top-15 defense. The Cyclones boast vastly superior defensive metrics than the Bearcats, allowing significantly fewer yards (4.9 vs 6.2) and points (0.235 vs 0.349) per play.
Iowa State is also holding opponents to a 37.5% third down conversion rate, and match up well against Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. The Bearcats QB has been on fire over the last few weeks, but struggled against Nebraska, the only legit defense he’s faced.
Sorsby completed a measly 13-of-25 throws in that game, and averaged just 2.8 yards per completion. The Cyclones pass defense is superior to the Cornhuskers, outranking them in coverage metrics.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa State QB Rocco Becht can take advantage of a weak Cincinnati secondary. The Bearcats corners rank 117th in coverage metrics, while Becht is the 16th most efficient college quarterback when throwing outside the numbers.