It’s already Week 7 of the college football season, but there always seem to be ample upset opportunities staring at us over the slate. While many gamblers may be looking towards "Blue Bloods" and favorites to handle business, there's always an upset to be had with college football betting.
College Football Upset Picks
We’ll start this week in Utah, where we'll see something we don’t see that often: a ranked team as a reasonably large underdog to an unranked team. Check out our college football upset picks below.
Arizona State (+5.5) vs Utah
I’m not exactly sure why the Arizona State Sun Devils, coming off a win over the 24th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, find themselves as 5.5-point road favorites against the Utah Utes. Perhaps it’s the recent history: Utah has beaten ASU three straight at home and in four of the last five contests overall.
They are third in Big 12 scoring at 39 points per game, and rank third on the defensive side, allowing just 14.6 per contest. However, Utah has been beating up on some pretty bad teams, including a stomping of West Virginia 48-14 last game. They’ve won by at least 25 in their four wins, but UCLA, Cal Poly, or Wyoming can hardly be considered signature W’s. What I do see is a 34-10 drubbing against 17th-ranked Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, Arizona State hasn’t been blowing anyone out of the water, but they’ve been in every game, including their lone loss on the year, a 24-20 defeat at Mississippi State. The Sun Devils are on the fringes of both scoring offense and defense, and they bring an impressive run game to the table, piling up 216.6 yards per game.
That’s third in the Big 12, with Utah in first at 242.6. The Utes will get tested, though, as Arizona State is giving up just 78.2 yards per game on the ground, second in the conference. It adds up to two teams that are evenly matched, but not a 5-5-point discrepancy.
Arkansas (+12.5) vs Tennessee
Yes, Arkansas is reeling after getting destroyed by Notre Dame 56-13. That loss cost Sam Pittman his head coaching job, replaced in the interim by Bobby Petrino, who was the offensive coordinator.
The deflating loss to the Fighting Irish overshadows the fact that Arkansas had been competitive all season. After starting 2-0, they lost by six to then 17th-ranked Ole Miss (now 4th) and were outduelled 32-21 by the Memphis Tigers before the ND blowup.
Tennessee’s only blemish this year was an OT loss to Georgia, and even then, they put up 41 points. Offense is the Vols’ trademark so far this year, as they have scored at least 41 points in every game this season, a big reason they lead the SEC in scoring at 51 points per game.
However, the Tennessee Volunteers are dead last in the conference in scoring defense, allowing 29 points per game. They cover it up with a timely defense and a pass rush that’s tied for the most sacks in the conference, at 21. Arkansas’ O-line had held up nicely, though, allowing just six sacks all year, and they’re powered by legit stud QB Taylen Green.
Against Ole Miss, he had 115 rushing yards and 305 passing yards, and two touchdowns. He generated 289 yards of total offense in a loss to the Irish. If Tennessee is even half-thinking about that showdown with Alabama next game, Arkansas can put a real scare into them, and potentially an outright win.
NC State (+22.5) vs Notre Dame
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting the train back on the tracks after tough losses to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season. They’re coming off a 28-7 win over Boise State, but they didn’t look as smooth as their last two wins, hanging 50+ points against both Purdue and Arkansas.
Against Boise, the Irish needed four interceptions to help them get to 28 points.NC State broke a 2-game losing skid with a 56-10 win over Campbell, which should make them feel good as they enter the meaty part of their schedule. The Irish represent the first of four ranked teams on the Wolfpack’s slate.
NC State can take advantage of that hearty spread by playing ball-control football, and they have a great running back in Holly Smothers. The Wolfpack own the ACC’s fourth-best rushing attack, churning out 165.3 yards per contest, which should keep ND’s offense off the field.
The Irish are inside the Top 40 in run defense, allowing better than 116 yards per game. NC State’s largest margin of defeat was 22 points, in a 45-33 loss to Duke. The Irish are 2-2-1 against the spread this year, and this is another big one worth wagering on.