It’s shocking to think that we are almost two full months done with the NCAAF season. We have more information to analyze when making our college football prop picks.
Below, we list our favorite player props for action on Saturday. Lock-in these bets with several college football betting bonuses on FanDuel Sportsbook. Register here and win $200 in bonus bets.
| College Football Prop Picks | Odds |
| Ryan Williams Over 67.5 Receiving Yards | -114 |
| LaNorris Sellers Over 29.5 Rushing Yards | -114 |
| Devon Dampier Over 50.5 Rushing Yards | -114 |
Buy Discounted Line for Williams Saturday
It is interesting that this line is priced where it is, as Ryan Williams is currently averaging 84 receiving yards per game so far this year. That said, it does make some sense as he has only actually gone over the 67.5 number in two of four games. Essentially, he is either blowing this prop out of the water (165, 98 yards in both games he went over), or not really coming that close (30, 43 yards in the other two).
The true sophomore is one of the best talents in college football, and his 3.08 yards per route run is a fantastic number. While the matchup is a tough one against a Missouri defense that is only allowing 14.6 points per game, the guess here is that Alabama is going to lean on their passing attack over a rushing game that has struggled.
On the year, the Alabama Crimson Tide rank 103rd in terms of EPA per rush. So, against a tough defense the expectation is that Alabama is going to lean on Williams in the air, moving him around the formation and having success against a defense that can be somewhat susceptible to giving up big plays through the air.
Sellers Has Success on the Ground vs. LSU
Despite only going over this rushing yards number in one game this year, this is the time to buy in on LaNorris Sellers rushing prop in a tough matchup against LSU. One thing to note about college football QB rushing stats is that sacks are counted against a QBs rushing prop (unlike the NFL), which is why you see some weird lines such as Norris having -28 yards on the ground against Missouri a couple weeks ago.
That said, Sellers was banged up to start the year. He looked healthy the last time we saw him play, two weeks ago against Kentucky when he rushed for 81 yards on 14 attempts and had the bye week last week to get himself even healthier. So, we should see a healthy and active Sellers on Saturday. For context, last year we saw Sellers go over this number in eight of 12 games, including 88 yards on the ground and two TDs against LSU last year.
The South Carolina Gamecocks do not have much of a traditional ground game to speak of, as they are averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game, 2.9 yards per carry and are 131st in terms of RB rushing success rate. Their OL has struggled, and they do not have much talent at the RB position. One way to combat all that is to use the QBs legs on the ground, and Sellers has the athleticism capable of doing just that.
Going up against an LSU team that misses a lot of tackles (78th in tackling in the nation), Sellers should be able to exploit them with his legs.
Dampier Joins Sellers with Successful Rushing Day
For our third and final prop, we are riding with another QB rushing prop, this time taking Dampier to hit the over 50.5 number against Arizona State. Dampier, the Utah starting QB, has been fantastic this season overall.
This is like the Sellers play where we are backing a QB to go over his rushing prop, despite hitting this number in only two of five games so far this season. He had 80+ rushing yards in two of the first three games, but has only managed 27 and 33 since, making this the perfect time to buy back in on his rushing prop.
Utah is playing against an Arizona State team that has struggled in general stopping teams on the ground, with the 113th-rated defensive rushing success rate. They are below-average on defense in general, ranked 83rd in success rate overall on defense. Not only that, but they have yet to see a dual-threat type of QB such as Devon Dampier. On the year, Dampier has rushed for 258 yards and two TDs. He gets to 51+ rushing yards Saturday.