The calendar has flipped to November, which leads us to Week 10 of the college football season. We are not far away from bowl season, but there is still plenty to be decided before we get there. We have one game on Saturday that features two ranked teams, which is the 18th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners going up against the 14th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers at 7:30 pm ET.
College Football Best Bets & Odds for Saturday
Check out college football betting bonuses on Fanatics and Caesars for these picks.
| College Football Best Bets | Odds |
| Oklahoma +3 | -115 on Fanatics Sportsbook |
| New Mexico +4.5 | -110 on Caesars Sportsbook |
| Vanderbilt/Texas u47.5 | -115 on Caesars Sportsbook |
Oklahoma Covers Field Goal in Knoxville
Despite being the road team and playing in Tennessee, we like Oklahoma to cover in this SEC rivalry game. The Oklahoma defense specifically is coming off a tough week against Ole Miss last week, where they allowed Ole Miss to move the ball up and down the field against them, especially in the second half. That said, there were some uncharacteristic issues that arose in that game that look unlikely to continue again this week.
Oklahoma did a great job on first and second down, as Ole Miss averaged 6.3 yards to go on third down, which is typically where you want to be as a defense. Unfortunately, 17 missed tackles from Oklahoma meant that Ole Miss was able to convert more of those third downs than you would expect. That said, the Tennessee offense does not do a great job of breaking tackles, ranking 83rd in the nation in that stat.
On the other side of the ball, the Tennessee defense is 112th in rush EPA allowed, which is a death sentence going up against Tory Blaylock and Oklahoma QB John Mateer, who still has value as a runner even though he has not used his legs as much this year. Oklahoma keeps this one within a field goal.
New Mexico Has Success vs. UNLV
UNLV is 6-1 but are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Going through their wins shows an unimpressive slew of opponents. They have close wins against Idaho State and Miami Ohio, after the Miami Ohio QB got hurt, Sam Houston (who has 0 wins on the year), and UCLA when they were at their lowest point of the year. Even with this record, UNLV ranks 115th in the nation in success rate allowed, which makes sense as they have been outgained in five of seven games.
Success rate measures how many successful plays a team has, but it does not consider big plays. Meaning, a 3 yard first down on 2nd and 2 is graded the same as an 80-yard touchdown. With that thought in mind, UNLV ranked 115th in EPA/play, meaning they give up a ton of big plays as well. They have been living off turnovers, currently with the third-best turnover margin in college football. This is all to suggest that a down-swing should be expected for UNLV, which leads us to New Mexico.
They have struggled with turnovers on the year, but New Mexico QB Jack Layne has gone two straight games without even a turnover-worthy play, and he has not had one in six of eight games this year. So, they should benefit from positive turnover luck, and they also should be able to run the ball against the UNLV defense that has the 136th-ranked rushing defensive EPA in the country.
Fade Offenses in Austin
The biggest news heading into this game is the status of Texas QB Arch Manning, who is likely to be out for this game due to a concussion. The starter is most likely Matthew Caldwell, who is a college football journeyman who is at his fourth stop. He has struggled with turnovers in his career, so the likely scenario with the Texas offense is that they lean on the ground game, which slows the game down and suppresses points.
Vanderbilt does have a good run defense that ranks 16th in the country, so the expectation is not that they will be able to run the ball up and down the field. The biggest mismatch in this game, however, is the Texas defense, and more specifically defensive line. They have a top 10 pass rush and are top 10 in terms of passing EPA allowed as well.
Vanderbilt has had a ton of success on the ground, but that won't work going up against Texas and their third-ranked run defense. There are just not a lot of avenues for the offenses in this one, which leads us to roll with the under.