The college football season rolls on this week, and I’m back with three more best bets to target. You won’t have to wait long to sweat my favorite pick on Saturday, as UCLA is catching an absurd 9 points on the road vs Michigan State.
College Football Best Bets for Week 7
Read along to find all our best college football best bets for Week 7 games with a full slate of NCAAF action. New users in a variety of states can sign-up with the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 or TSN1500 to get $150 in bonus bets or claim a $1,500 First Bet Offer, depending on their location.
UCLA Undervalued vs Michigan State
Can someone explain to me how oddsmakers got to this spread? The Spartans enter play yielding over 32 points per game and rank 94th in opponent red zone scoring percentage. Offensively, Michigan State leaves a lot to be desired as well. They threw for fewer than 100 yards last week against Nebraska, and rank outside the top-85 in passing and rushing success rate.
The Bruins meanwhile, are fresh off a shocking upset of Penn State. Nico Iamaleava looked like he did during his stellar 2024 season at Tennessee, shredding the Nittany Lions on the ground and through the air. He threw for 2 TD and rushed for 128 yards and three additional scores.
UCLA racked up 5.4 yards per carry last week for new OC Jerry Neuheisel, and now faces a Spartans D that was gashed for nearly 300 rushing yards by USC three weeks ago.
Michigan State has surrendered 83 points in its last two games alone, leaving the door open for a ceiling-type performance from the Bruins offense. I’m taking UCLA plus the points, but I wouldn’t discourage anyone from betting them on the moneyline as well at a very favorable (+255) price.
Ohio State Suffocates the Illinois Offense
Sticking in the Big Ten, where I’m fading the Illinois offense against the juggernaut Ohio State
defense. The Buckeyes have surrendered only two touchdowns all season and have yet to
allow an opponent to score in the red zone in eight trips.
They rank number one in scoring defense, number two in yards per play, and number three in
yards allowed per game. Their defense is loaded with athletic freaks at every level, and they
simply don’t allow opponents to sustain drives.
Enemy offenses are converting just 20% of their third-down opportunities. Their last two
conference opponents have combined to go 2-for-21 on third down, while no offense has
cleared 9 points against them.
Don’t expect that to change this weekend. Illinois’ offense is the equivalent of a schoolyard bully. It preys on the weak and folds versus stiff competition. Just look at their performance
versus Indiana, the only top program they’ve faced. The Fighting Illini mustered only 10 points in
that contest, with QB Luke Altmyer barely throwing for 140 yards.
Illinois ranks 82nd in third-down conversion rate and 62nd in red zone scoring percentage.
That’s not a recipe for success against the Buckeyes. In addition to betting under 17.5 points for
the Fighting Illini, I’m also taking a sprinkle of under 12.5 points at (+250) odds.
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Klubnik Carves up Boston College
The Cade Klubnik redemption tour continues this week with a trip to Boston College. Klubnik finally looked like the preseason Heisman favorite last week, dicing up the pathetic North Carolina defense to the tune of 254 yards and 4 TD.
The matchup is just as good this week, and I’m banking on him exceeding 2.5 touchdowns for the third straight game. The Eagles are one of the worst defenses in college football. They rank 121st in scoring defense and 98th in yards allowed per game. They’ve been especially bad versus the pass,
yielding 7.7 yards per throw and 251 yards per game, while grading out 94th in coverage
metrics.
Boston College also struggles to rush the passer, paving the way for Klubnik to sit back and pick them apart. The Clemson Tigers are currently 14-point favorites and carry a 34.5-point team total. The best way for them to build margin is through the arm of Klubnik, just like they did in their blowout of the Tar Heels last week.