The Seattle Mariners took a commanding 2-0 lead to start out this ALCS, winning both games in Toronto. Now, they head back home to Seattle with a chance to really put the series out of reach with a win on Wednesday night. They are set up to do so with their ace on the mound in George Kirby.
The Toronto Blue Jays will have something to say about it, however, as they did not have the best record in the AL for no reason. Shane Bieber in on the mound for them, who has struggled recently, but he has electric stuff and could easily pitch a gem.
First pitch is schedule for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we explain our favorite Blue Jays-Mariners props, highlighting several home run picks.
| Blue Jays-Mariners Props | Odds |
| Eugenio Suarez | +440 on DraftKings |
| Jorge Polanco | +581 on DraftKings |
| Josh Naylor | +680 on FanDuel |
Uncle 'Geno Goes Yard
Eugenio Suarez, or Uncle 'Geno, as he is so lovingly called, had a fantastic regular season in the home run department but has not quite made his mark in the postseason yet. The guess here is that changes tonight. The biggest advantage the Mariners have tonight is over starting pitcher Bieber, which is why we are on three Mariners to go yard tonight. Bieber had a great start in his first action of the year, but really struggled to end the season, including his one playoff start.
On the year, he allowed a home run every 20.50 at-bats, which is higher than most starting pitchers this late in the postseason. That said, he got worse as the season went on, allowing a home run every 15.40 at-bats over the last five weeks. While he did not give up a home run in his lone postseason start, it is not as though he pitched well. He lasted 2.2 innings against the Yankees, allowing five hits, two of which were extra-base hits, and two earned runs.
Now, he gets a matchup against a red-hot Mariners team whose bats have shown up through two games this series. Even if he does not last long in the game, the Blue Jays bullpen has been shaky this postseason and over the last month, allowing a barrel rate of 10.4% and a HardHit rate of 50.6% in this stretch, all with a relatively low (for a bullpen) strikeout rate of 24.8%.
As for Suarez, he has had a solid, albeit unspectacular series through two games. Overall, he has three HardHits and one barrel, which was a double that traveled 395 feet and would have been a home run in 15/30 stadiums. One thing not yet mentioned is Bieber has struggled significantly more against right-handed bats, allowing a home run every eight ABs to RHH specifically over this stretch. With this also being a great pitch-mix situation for Suarez against Bieber, so the guess here is that he manages to clear a fence tonight.
Polanco Continues Torrid Playoff Run
Obviously, there is a lot of baseball to be played before we get to this point, but if the Mariners end up winning the World Series, the frontrunner for MVP up to this point would be Jorge Polanco without a doubt. He has been fantastic this entire playoff run for the Mariners and has shown no signs of slowing down.
He leads the Mariners in total HardHits (12) and barrels (4) in the postseason so far and is coming off a three HardHit and one barrel game in which he also hit a home run in Game 2. All three of those HardHits were 100+ mph exit velocity, with EV logs of 105.2, 204.6 and 101.8 mph.
Unsurprisingly, he also leads the ALCS in total HardHits with five, and only one other batter is close to him with four. He stays hot tonight.
Naylor Homers Off Former Teammate
Josh Naylor and Bieber were once teammates in Cleveland and now find themselves facing off against one another in the ALCS. They have not yet faced off against each other, which is not a surprise with all the time Bieber has missed due to injury, but Naylor has a solid situation to homer tonight.
While not as hot as Polanco (no batter is), Naylor does match Eugenio Suarez referenced earlier with three total HardHits and one barrel so far in this ALCS. Naylor did manage to hit a home run in Game 2 in his last at-bat, with two HardHits total in that game, but he came close to hitting one in Game 1 as well with a 389-foot flyout that was 103.3 mph off the bat with a 33-degree launch angle.
Between the three, one home run would equal profit, while we have a good chance of getting multiple to hit. Try using multiple MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings and FanDuel for these wagers.