Get in on the postseason MLB action with these Blue Jays-Mariners picks as Seattle holds a 2-0 series lead and looks to put Toronto in a checkmate position with another victory this evening.
- Pivotal ALCS Game 3: The series shifts to Seattle where the Mariners, backed by their home crowd and ace George Kirby, look to take a commanding series lead against a Toronto Blue Jays team needing a strong road performance.
- Contrasting Pitching Form: The matchup on the mound heavily favors Seattle, with George Kirby sporting a stellar 2.70 playoff ERA against Shane Bieber, who has struggled with a 6.75 ERA in his postseason starts.
- Betting Market Signals: Despite the public backing the Blue Jays, the betting line has moved in favor of the Mariners, a classic sign of reverse line movement that indicates sharp money is siding with the home favorite.
The Seattle Mariners, behind a dominant performance from their ace George Kirby who boasts a sparkling 2.70 ERA in the postseason, look to press their advantage in this pivotal ALCS Game 3 against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto will counter with Shane Bieber (0-0, 6.75 ERA), who is aiming for a crucial bounce-back performance after a rocky start to his playoff campaign. With the series shifting to the electric atmosphere of T-Mobile Park, the Mariners are riding a wave of momentum after a decisive victory in Game 2.
This contest features a fascinating clash of styles and circumstances. The Mariners' offense has been firing on all cylinders, showcasing its power in the previous game, while the Blue Jays are dealing with significant injuries to key players that could test their lineup's depth.
As the stakes heighten, this game will hinge on whether Bieber can rediscover his form to silence a potent Seattle lineup and if Toronto's bats can solve the puzzle that is George Kirby. This preview will break down the odds, dive into key player props, and provide a comprehensive betting prediction for this critical ALCS showdown.
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Blue Jays-Mariners Betting Preview
The Blue Jays and Mariners will square off in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 pm ET. The crucial pitching matchup features Toronto's Bieber taking the hill against Seattle's Kirby.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Toronto Blue Jays Odds | Seattle Mariners Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-222) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total Runs | Over 7 (-118) | Under 7 (-102) |
Odds as of October 15 from MGM.
The odds paint the Mariners as moderate home favorites, a line justified by the pitching matchup and their stellar play at T-Mobile Park. The moneyline implies a significant edge for the home team. A deeper look at the vig-free probabilities confirms this sentiment, breaking down the true chances of victory for each club.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The MLB betting market has shown significant movement in favor of the Mariners, despite a majority of public bets coming in on the Blue Jays. The Mariners' moneyline opened at (-120) and has been pushed to (-130). Simultaneously, the Blue Jays' odds have lengthened from (+100) to (+110). This is a classic case of reverse line movement; while 59% of moneyline tickets are on Toronto, the line is moving against them, indicating that sharp, respected bettors are backing Seattle and forcing sportsbooks to adjust.
The total has also seen a notable shift, moving from an opening line of 7 runs with the Over at (-105) to the current price of (-118). This is a direct response to overwhelming public action, with 82% of all bets on the Over. The run line has seen the juice on the Blue Jays (+1.5) increase from (-200) to (-222), making the Mariners (-1.5) an even more attractive payout at (+180), up from (+165).
This movement suggests that while the market expects a Seattle win, there's value to be found in them winning by multiple runs. The primary driver for these shifts appears to be the stark contrast in starting pitcher form and the Mariners' formidable home-field advantage.
Mariners vs Blue Jays ALCS Game 3 Props: Hitting
| Player | Hits | Total Bases | Home Runs | RBIs | Runs Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 (O -238 | U +175) | 1.5 (O +115 | U -161) | +480 | 0.5 (O +170 | U -227) | 0.5 (O +120 | U -167) |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 1.5 (O +210 | U -286) | 1.5 (O +110 | U -154) | +385 | 0.5 (O +170 | U -227) | 0.5 (O +125 | U -167) |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 (O -222 | U +165) | 1.5 (O +135 | U -189) | +424 | 0.5 (O +230 | U -333) | 0.5 (O +115 | U -154) |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 (O -175 | U +135) | 0.5 (O -182 | U +130) | +552 | 0.5 (O +170 | U -227) | 0.5 (O +145 | U -200) |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 (O -159 | U +117) | 0.5 (O -170 | U +120) | +289 | 0.5 (O +153 | U -216) | 0.5 (O -106 | U -129) |
ALCS Game 3 Pitcher Props
| Pitcher | Strikeouts | Earned Runs | Walks Allowed | Hits Allowed | Pitcher Outs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby (SEA) | 4.5 (O -124 | U -104) | 1.5 (O -120 | U -118) | 0.5 (O -230 | U +167) | 4.5 (O +110 | U -154) | 15.5 (O +100 | U -139) |
| Shane Bieber (TOR) | 4.5 (O -128 | U +100) | 1.5 (O -161 | U +115) | 1.5 (O +123 | U -168) | 3.5 (O -161 | U +115) | 14.5 (O -120 | U -115) |
For the pitcher props, Kirby's strikeout line of 4.5 seems attainable. While he is known more for control than pure velocity, the depleted Blue Jays lineup, missing Bo Bichette, may be more susceptible to strikeouts.
On the other side, Bieber's earned runs line is set at a low 1.5, with heavy juice on the over (-161). Given his 6.75 postseason ERA and the Mariners' recent power surge, the over on his earned runs is a compelling play. The market expects Bieber to struggle, also reflected in his low Hits Allowed line of 3.5 (-161 to the over) and Outs Recorded line of 14.5, suggesting he may not pitch deep into the fifth inning.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Picks & Prediction
The pitching matchup is the undeniable centerpiece of this ALCS Game 3, and it slants heavily in favor of the Mariners. Kirby has been a rock for Seattle, posting a tidy 2.70 ERA in the playoffs and demonstrating the poise needed for high-stakes October baseball.
He'll be pitching in front of a raucous home crowd where the Mariners have been nearly unbeatable. On the other side, Bieber has been uncharacteristically hittable, with his postseason ERA ballooning to 6.75. Facing a confident Mariners lineup that just put up 10 runs, Bieber is in a tough spot to right the ship.
The situational trends provide overwhelming support for Seattle. The Mariners are an incredible 10-1 (.909) at home after a win in their last 11 such games and are 16-4 (.800) as a favorite in their last 20 contests. Their dominance against winning teams is also notable, going 5-1 (.833) in their last six matchups. Toronto, meanwhile, has struggled in the playoffs recently, going just 1-3 in their last four postseason games.
Compounding Toronto's problems is a lengthy injury list that sidelines core players like Bichette and José Berríos, with power threat Anthony Santander also banged up.
Given the pitching disparity, home-field advantage, current form, and Toronto's key injuries, the Mariners are the clear pick. The reverse line movement on the moneyline only reinforces that the smart money is on Seattle. We'll back the home team to win and cover the run line for a better payout.
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Picks:
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-130)
- Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+180)
- Over 7 Runs (-118)
Recent Series Action: Mariners Power Past Blue Jays in Game 2
The Mariners seized control of the series with an explosive offensive display, defeating the Blue Jays 10-3 in Game 2. The Mariners' lineup erupted, blasting three home runs to overwhelm Toronto's pitching staff. Jorge Polanco delivered a powerful blow with a homer and 3 RBIs, while Josh Naylor went 3-for-4 with a home run and 2 RBIs.
Superstar Julio Rodríguez also joined the home run parade, driving in three runs himself. The offensive onslaught provided more than enough support for the Seattle pitching staff, with reliever Eduard Bazardo earning the win. For the Blue Jays, it was a night to forget as starter Trey Yesavage was tagged with the loss after surrendering five earned runs in just four innings.
Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Home Team (Seattle Mariners) | Away Team (Toronto Blue Jays) | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 41% of bets (25.35% of money) | 59% of bets (74.65% of money) | ||
| Run Line | 73.09% of bets (75.74% of money) | 26.91% of bets (24.26% of money) | ||
| Total Runs | 82.03% of bets (81.3% of money) | 17.97% of bets (18.7% of money) |
The public is heavily backing Toronto on the moneyline, with 59% of the tickets and nearly 75% of the total money wagered on the underdog. However, as noted in our odds analysis, the line has moved in Seattle's favor, a strong indicator that sharp money disagrees with the public consensus.
The run line sees heavy public favor for the Mariners to cover, while the total is overwhelmingly tilted towards the Over, with over 82% of bets expecting a high-scoring affair.