Bears vs. Eagles Props: Our Favorite Player Prop Picks for Black Friday

The Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles deliver a compelling NFC showdown packed with offensive firepower on Black Friday, November 28, 2025, at 3:00 PM ET from Lincoln Financial Field. This quarterback duel pits Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts against Chicago's rising star Caleb Williams, who has been consistently productive, averaging 233.5 passing yards per game.

Eagles vs Bears Player Props and Betting Picks

The ground game presents a fascinating battle between two elite backs. The Eagles' Saquon Barkley commands 16.82 carries per game, while the Bears' D'Andre Swift has been slightly more productive on a per-carry basis, averaging 64.9 rushing yards per game to Barkley's 62.18. With premier targets like DJ Moore and A.J. Brown adding another layer of intrigue, this matchup offers numerous betting angles. We'll dissect the key player statistics and matchup dynamics to identify the most profitable opportunities on the board.

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NFL Player Props Analysis: Caleb Williams vs Jalen Hurts Showdown

This NFC clash presents a wealth of individual performance betting opportunities. From the quarterback battle to the running back duel and touchdown scorer markets, let's examine the most compelling player prop options.

Passing Props Breakdown

The passing markets reflect a tightly contested aerial battle. Williams' passing yards line sits at 212.5 with his completions prop at 18.5—both remaining steady since opening. While oddsmakers expect Williams to find the end zone at least once, the 1.5 passing touchdowns prop carries heavy juice toward the under (-222), suggesting a solid but not explosive passing day for Chicago's signal-caller.

Hurts faces nearly identical lines at 208.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns. However, his completions prop has witnessed significant market movement. After opening with the over on 18.5 completions at even money (+100), sharp action has driven the over to a heavily favored -128. This dramatic shift indicates strong belief that Hurts will operate efficiently, connecting frequently with his receivers—a stark contrast to his subdued yardage output last week.

Rushing and Receiving Props Market

The ground game projections signal a heavy workload for Barkley, whose rushing yards line commands a lofty 78.5 with 18.5 projected attempts. For Chicago, Swift's rushing attempts prop has experienced notable movement—opening with the over on 9.5 carries at +105 before juice shifted to -125, suggesting bettors anticipate increased involvement against his former squad.

In the receiving department, DJ Moore's receptions prop at 3.5 has generated the most dramatic line movement. The over opened as a heavy favorite (-169) before money flooded the under, completely flipping the odds to -182. This indicates strong market sentiment that Moore will be held to three catches or fewer. Meanwhile, rookie Rome Odunze carries a higher receiving yardage projection at 47.5 yards with a 3.5 receptions line (-133 over). For Philadelphia, A.J. Brown leads with 60.5 receiving yards, while DeVonta Smith sits at 54.5 yards.

Touchdown Scorer Odds

As expected, Hurts (-103) and Barkley (-124) dominate the touchdown markets, reflecting their dual-threat capabilities and goal-line roles. Barkley's first touchdown scorer odds have tightened from +550 to +508, indicating backing for him to open the scoring. Similarly, A.J. Brown's anytime touchdown odds have shortened from +145 to +136 as bettors support his scoring potential.

For the Bears, Swift leads at +200 for anytime touchdown. The most intriguing Chicago option might be Rome Odunze at +245, whose odds have remained stable. Conversely, the market has cooled on DJ Moore as a scoring threat—his anytime touchdown odds have lengthened from +360 to +388, aligning with the massive shift on his reception total under.

Player Performance Trends: Season Stats vs Betting Lines

Analyzing season-long production against current betting lines reveals valuable insights. Here are the key statistical disparities for primary players in this matchup:

• Caleb Williams Passing Yards: Williams has consistently delivered through the air, averaging 233.5 passing yards per game—more than 20 yards above his 212.5-yard prop line, suggesting strong value on the over.
• D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards: Swift's rushing prop sits at just 36.5 yards, significantly below his 64.9 yards per game average this season—a 28.4-yard discrepancy that represents the largest statistical gap among major skill players.
• Saquon Barkley Rushing Volume: The market projects 78.5 rushing yards and 18.5 attempts for Barkley, both above his season averages of 62.18 yards and 16.82 carries per game, indicating potentially inflated expectations.
• Jalen Hurts Passing Yards: Hurts' 208.5-yard prop aligns closely with his 207.6-yard season average, though he's seeking a rebound after being limited to 124 passing yards in his most recent performance.

Top Player Prop Picks: Best Bets for Bears vs Eagles

After analyzing season trends and market movements, we've identified the most exploitable edges. Value emerges when consistent season-long output contrasts sharply with betting lines, or where sharp money movement reveals insider confidence. Here are our premium selections for this Black Friday showdown.

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Lock Pick: D'Andre Swift Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

This represents the most mispriced line on the board based on season performance. Swift faces his former team in what promises to be an emotionally charged revenge game, yet his rushing prop sits at a suspiciously low 36.5 yards.

Statistical Edge Analysis:

• Season Average: Swift has been Chicago's workhorse, averaging 64.9 rushing yards per game
• Line Discrepancy: His average output exceeds the prop by 28.4 yards—the largest gap for any major skill player
• Market Confirmation: Heavy action on Swift's rushing attempts over (9.5) moved from +105 to -125, indicating strong belief in significant volume

The combination of massive statistical advantage, supporting line movement on attempts, and the revenge game narrative creates our highest-confidence selection.

Best Bet: Caleb Williams Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Williams has quietly established consistency while flying under the radar compared to Philadelphia's established stars. His passing efficiency drives Chicago's productive offense that averages 26.3 points per game.

Supporting Analysis:

• Williams averages 233.5 passing yards per contest, providing a comfortable 21-yard cushion
• Philadelphia's defense has surrendered big plays consistently
• Game script favors Chicago needing to throw to match Philadelphia's offensive output

The combination of consistent production, favorable matchup dynamics, and reasonable pricing makes this an excellent secondary play.

Same Game Parlay Opportunity: Swift + Brown + Hurts Efficiency

For enhanced payouts, this correlated parlay builds on logical game flow:

Leg 1: D'Andre Swift Over 36.5 Rushing Yards

• Our highest-confidence selection based on the analysis above

Leg 2: A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+136)

• Philadelphia boasts elite red zone efficiency (77.8% conversion rate)
• Brown is Hurts' primary target with shortened odds indicating market confidence

Leg 3: Jalen Hurts Over 18.5 Pass Completions (-128)

• Sharp money drove this line from +100 to -128
• Suggests game plan centered on high-percentage throws
• Aligns with Brown's touchdown potential through efficient passing attack