It'l be the second time the top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft will be facing off, as Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears take on Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. For those who forgot how last year’s game went, that was the infamous Hail Mary game where the Commanders won on a last second play, which ended up being the start of an epic downfall for the Bears.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. Below, we go over our favorite Bears-Commanders props for the contest. Sign up on DraftKings and BetMGM to use NFL betting bonuses.
| Bears-Commanders Props | Odds |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 67.5 Rushing Yards | -113 on DraftKings |
| Rome Odunze Over 66.5 Receiving Yards | -113 on DraftKings |
| Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions | +100 BetMGM |
Croskey-Merritt Stays Hot
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, or Bill, as he is lovingly nicknamed, had a great game on the ground last week against the Chargers and are expecting that to continue once again tonight. He had a season high in snap rate last week, and it was also the first game of the year in which he received most carries. He was efficient in that game last week with 111 yards on only 14 carries, but he's been that way all year. He currently leads the entire NFL in yards per carry and has the second-highest explosive run rate.
The guess here is that we should see 15+ carries in this one, and he has a fantastic matchup against the Bears who have a horrible run defense. On the year, the Bears have allowed the most rushing yards specifically to RBs in the entire NFL, allowing the highest yards per carry as well.
To go even further than that, they have allowed the highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt, the 5th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest stuff rate, have missed the most tackle per attempt and have allowed the second-most yards after contact.
Unsurprisingly, they've allowed six of seven RBs against them hit their rushing prop over, with the only missing being Aaron Jones in Week 1, but Jordan Mason crushed his over in the same game.
Odunze Heavily Involved for Bears
This is a number that Rome Odunze has only gone over in two of four games so far this year, but it is his workload that is so encouraging. Unsurprisingly, Odunze is the most targeted receiver on the Bears in general, and he also has the most first-read targets as well. He has 25 of them, with a 32% first-read target share. Nobody on the Bears has more than 15 first-read targets or a first-read target rate 20% or higher.
The nice part about this is not only is he heavily targeted, with a target rate of 24.5% and averaging 0.25 targets per route run, but he is also used down the field as well. His ADOT on the year is 13.2, which is the 18th-highest in the NFL, but he has the highest target rate of all players in the top 20, and the third-highest targets per route run. So, he is essentially among the top three if we combine target rate and average depth of target.
While the matchup against the Commanders is not among the best in the NFL, they are also not a defense to fear. They are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed per game specifically to WRs, as is all their advanced stats specifically against No. 1 WRs as well. We have seen similar receivers have success against the Commanders such as Drake London and his 110 receiving yards against them, and the guess here is that Odunze has a good game tonight.
Ertz Bounces Back
For the first time in his Commanders tenure, Zach Ertz did not catch a single pass last game for the team. He was only targeted one time, just having a quiet game. That said, if you look at the entirety of his career with the Commanders, he has reached 4+ receptions in 13/25 games, which jumps up slightly to every 13 of 23 games in which Daniels played in. Daniels missed two games this year, and Ertz did not reach four targets in either of those games.
With the Commanders still having injury issues at the WR position, as Terry McLaurin is still out for this game and Deebo Samuel is currently listed as questionable. So, the Commanders are going to need somebody to step up in the passing game, and Ertz is as QB friendly as it gets among pass-catchers.
Thankfully, the matchup is also solid against the Bears, who have allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends in the entire NFL. Part of this is influenced by an absurd 13 receptions from Jake Ferguson in Week 3, but it is still a matchup that the Commanders should be able to exploit to the tune of at least four receptions.