TL;DR
- ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini predict Narukami to win the Champions Cup.
- Narukami is favored due to a winning streak and suitability for the course.
- Double Heart Bond is consistently predicted for second place by all AIs.
- Third place predictions vary between Sixpence and Wilson Tesoro across the AIs.
12月7日、中央競馬の下半期ダート王決定戦、第26回チャンピオンズカップ（G1）が開催される。
Here, we'll use the currently popular AI chatbot service to provide predictions for the first, second, and third place finishers in this year's Champions Cup. While Narukami, who is on a four-race winning streak and recently won the Japan Dirt Classic, appears to be the main contender this year, the other 15 horses are also strong dirt competitors. Given that there are capable horses that might surprise at long odds, this week's focus should be not only on the AI's top pick but also on its supporting selections!
Geminiが3連単ズバリ的中の日本ダービーAI予想の回顧記事はこちら！
AIに質問した内容
This time, we're predicting the Champions Cup using OpenAI's ChatGPT, X's Grok（グロック）, and Google's Gemini（ジェミニ）. We provided each chatbot with information about the participating horses and asked them to output their predictions for The Champions Cup's 1着から3着までの独自の予想根拠を提示するとともに. The details of the information given to the chatbots are as follows.
- 枠順
- 血統
- 通算成績
- 前走成績
- 前走馬体重
- 鞍上
- 調教師
ChatGPT のチャンピオンズカップ予想
先週のジャパンカップでは1着にカランダガン、2着にマスカレードボールを予想したChatGPT。次は3着まで的中させ3連単を完成させたい今週の予想はこちら。
- 1着：ナルカミ
- 2着：ダブルハートボンド
- 3着：シックスペンス
ChatGPT's top pick is indeed ナルカミ. Observing that the Chukyo dirt 1,800-meter course favors front-runners, ChatGPT selected the leading horse as its favorite. Despite some concern about its slightly outside post position, the three-year-old's advantage in weight and its four-race winning streak led to a prediction of first place.
対抗は ダブルハートボンド。こちらも逃げ馬で、前走はみやこステークスをレコード勝利。牝馬は牡馬と比べマイナス2kgの負担重量減もあり、ここは2着の予想となったもののChatGPTは高く評価したようだ。
For third place, the prediction is シックスペンス. In its previous race, the Mile Championship Nambu Hai, it achieved a second-place finish. The AI expressed favor for its demonstrated suitability for dirt racing, securing second place immediately upon its debut on the surface. While the jockey is the renowned Lemaire, the AI raised doubts about its ability to perform well with a one-furlong increase in distance from its last race.
ChatGPTは上記3頭以外の注目馬にウィルソンテソーロ、ルクソールカフェをピックアップ。買い目はナルカミとダブルハートボンドのワイド、3連複12-2,11-2,11,8,16を推奨した。
Grokのチャンピオンズカップ予想
先週はマスカレードボールとカランダガンを連対予想したものの順番が逆だったGrok。今回は期間限定公開中の Grok 4.1 Beta を使用し予想を出力した。プロンプトを打ち込むやいなや素早く繰り出した今週の予想はこちら。
- 1着：ナルカミ
- 2着：ダブルハートボンド
- 3着：ウィルソンテソーロ
Grokもワンツーに ナルカミ と ダブルハートボンド を推奨。後者に関しては中京ダートでのキズナ産駒の成績の良さを評価。鞍上の坂井が先行意識の強いジョッキーであることも加味し、ナルカミは上回らなかったものの2着に推した。
3着はChatGPTとは違い ウィルソンテソーロ と予想。チャンピオンズカップで過去2度の2着があるリピーターで、鞍上の川田が中京ダート1,800コースで非常に高い複勝率を記録していることも評価の後押しとなったようだ。
Geminiのチャンピオンズカップ予想
ジャパンカップではカランダガンとマスカレードボールを馬券圏内に予想したものの、前者は3着、後者は1着に予想していたGemini。着順も含めた精度を期待したい今週の予想はこちら。
- 1着：ナルカミ
- 2着：ダブルハートボンド
- 3着：シックスペンス
Gemini's prediction mirrored ChatGPT's exactly, and its top two selections were identical to Grok's. Gemini, carrying the banner of the three-year-old champion, will challenge the older horse division.ナルカミ, who has previously won this race, was favored as the top pick, drawing comparisons to Chrysoprase and Le Vens Reve, with high marks given for momentum, weight, and a well-timed racing schedule.
While I anticipated ダブルハートボンド would finish second, similar to other AI predictions, only Gemini surprisingly recommended it, citing the advantage of drawing the inside post position 2. On the Chukyo dirt 1,800-meter course, which features an uphill start and requires skillful cornering, an inside gate offers significant benefits.
Regarding the third-place prediction for シックスペンス, Gemini has judged that the extended distance will be a positive factor. This horse has been very divisive regarding its suitability for different distances since its three-year-old season. While Grok cited the extended distance as a concern, Gemini appears to view it as a favorable element instead.
Regarding other horses to watch, I mentioned Seraphic Call and Wilson Tesoro, but I lowered my assessment of the former due to concerns about inconsistent performance, and of the latter because it finished 5th in its previous race, indicating it's past its peak. I explained that I excluded Luxor Cafe from my predictions for a place in the betting due to its wide outside gate, and Meisho Hario and Hagino Alegrias from my predictions for a place in the betting because they are 8-year-old horses.
▶WINTICKET（ウィンチケット）のアプリをダウンロード
各AIの予想の考察
This time, three AIs produced nearly identical predictions. ChatGPT and Gemini had the exact same forecast for the top three positions, while Grok favored ウィルソンテソーロ over シックスペンス for third place. As expected, the past performance charts for ナルカミ and ダブルハートボンド were impressive; the former boasts a Jpn1 victory, and the latter set a record pace. In essence, these can be described as "horses with performances that AIs find easy to predict."
注目馬はやはり ナルカミ。AIは言及していなかったものの、本馬を管理するのは昨年チャンピオンズカップ連覇を果たして引退した田中博康厩舎。勝ち方を知るチームから新スターが登場するか、必見だ。
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