Grading 2023 NFL mock drafts: How did Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Peter King & other experts fare?

Pencils down!

NFL Draft season isn't exciting just for the draft itself, but also for draftniks and analysts putting together advanced, detailed scouting reports and offering solutions for all 32 NFL teams. That doesn't mean that they get it right, though. 

Consider this: In 2022, NBC Sports' Peter King set the highwater mark for most correct picks in a wild and wacky first round, with a score of seven out of 32 correct. Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay had the same grade, getting 4 1/2 points out of 32.

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If there's any one thing the NFL Draft tells us every year, it's that no one knows anything. It's a crapshoot of epic proportions, a massive guessing game wrapped in a puzzle. Just look at the mock drafts below and see how some of the experts fared in 2023.

The Sporting News took some of the heavy hitters of the draft world and graded their final mock drafts to see just how close they got to the real one. Here's how the grading worked: 

• One full point for correct player, pick and team;
• One half point for correct player and pick, but incorrect team;
• One half point for correct player and team, but incorrect pick.

(Bold lines represent one full point while italicized lines represent a half-point).

Here's how the experts panned out:

Vinnie Iyer's mock draft (The Sporting News)

Iyer's final mock draft was released April 27:

Picks correct: 5/31

Noteworthy

— The Eagles finished their draft strong, taking Nolan Smith at No. 30. That gives the Eagles three defenders from Georgia's national championship squads: Smith, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis (drafted in 2022).

MORE: Ranking signings, trades for all 32 NFL teams from best (Bears) to worst (Packers)

Mel Kiper's mock draft (ESPN)

Kiper's final mock draft was released April 27. His full analysis on each pick can be found here. 

Picks correct: 1.5/31

Noteworthy:

— Not a particularly strong showing for the Draft Guru in 2023. Kiper got a half-point for getting Will Anderson at No. 2, though the Texans had to trade up to take him at No. 3. Otherwise, Kiper got the first pick spot on, and no other firstrounders correct.

MORE: Career timeline for legendary NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.

Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft (NFL Network)

Jeremiah's latest mock draft was released on April 26:

Picks correct: 6.5/31

Noteworthy:

— Jeremiah set the high-water mark for this year's draft, including an excellent projection with the Texans' top two picks, including the Houston trade up to No. 3 overall. 

MORE: Why are there only 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?

Todd McShay's mock draft (ESPN)

McShay's latest mock draft was released on April 27, with a midday adjustment. For full detailed analysis for each pick, visit his mock draft here.

Picks correct: 4/31

Noteworthy:

— Like a few others, McShay had Jordan Addison and Emmanuel Forbes going to the Vikings and Commanders, respectively, which makes for two selections. Otherwise, he had a few players in the first round who did not go there — Will Levis, Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave and Brian Branch, most notably.

Dane Brugler's mock draft (The Athletic)

Brugler's latest mock draft was revealed on April 27. For full details and analysis, visit Brugler's mock draft here.

Picks correct: 

Noteworthy: 4.5/31

— Brugler tied a few others with 4.5 points for his mock draft. Notable misses in the first include Will Levis and Matthew Bergeron — Brugler was the only one of the mock drafters here who had Bergeron in the first round.

Peter King's mock draft (NBC Sports)

King's mock draft was revealed on April 24.

Picks correct: 2.5/31

Noteworthy: 

— King was the reigning and defending mock-draft expert in the last two years, but he didn't have as strong a go of it in 2023. Also worth noting: King's mock draft came out before the Aaron Rodgers trade, so he had the original picks for both the Packers and Jets.