New York's Madison Square Garden is the scene for a historic all-women's fight card this weekend. The main event sees the third fight in the Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano trilogy, this time for undisputed super lightweight gold.
Taylor (24-1) is 2-0 against Serrano (47-3-1). The first fight, the 2022 Fight of the Year at MSG, saw Taylor beat Serrano via a close decision scoring.
The rematch was watched by 50 million households, serving as the co-main event alongside Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson. Despite being deducted a point due to headbutts, Taylor won in a somewhat controversial decision.
Both fighters head back to where it all began. They both could very well retire after this fight. However, the focus on fight night will be the person in front of them.
Can Taylor go 3-0 against Serrano, or will the seven-division champion finally vanquish Taylor and add more gold to her waist?
Along with the trilogy fight, the card is set to break the Guinness World Record for the most world championship belts ever contested in a single fight card (17 across five fights).
With the help of the Parimatch, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire Taylor vs. Serrano 3 fight card.
Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 expert picks and full card predictions
Katie Taylor (c) vs. Amanda Serrano 3 for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring super lightweight titles
Per Parimatch, Amanda Serrano is the 1.50 favorite, with Katie Taylor back at 2.65. The draw is 17.0.
Both fighters are each other's perfect dance partners. The third encounter is sure to result in fireworks.
The first fight was a close one, with Taylor beating Serrano via decision. Serrano landed more total punches (173 of 624 shots compared to 147 of 375 shots), but Taylor landed with more accuracy (39.2% compared to 27.7%). Serrano landed 44 strikes in an important fifth round and 32 in round ten.
The rematch saw Serrano land more accurate shots (324 of 734 - 44.1%) compared to Taylor (217 of 529 - 41%). The former went off in the later rounds, landing 215 strikes in the last four rounds. Despite that, and Taylor getting deducted a point for headbutting, the Irish fighter won in a controversial decision.
One can argue it's 1-1. It's also a moot point, but Serrano could have brought Taylor to the canvas if the fight had three-minute rounds. Regardless of the result, both women brought it.
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When Taylor moves her feet, she can glide around the ring. Her opponents often become frustrated and can make mistakes. Serrano is a complete technical fighter who has thrived in multiple weight classes. "The Real Deal" has the edge in power, but Taylor's foot speed trumps that of Serrano's.
Taylor will be sure to try to avoid Serrano's crisp jabs and power shots, though Serrano will look to be aggressive. Taylor can draw Serrano in and counter shots with key blows of her own. Her strategy of playing it close to the vest is her best shot at avoiding flurries. She will now need to be wary about headbutts, which the referee will keep a close eye on now.
Will the cut Serrano suffered over her eye in the rematch play a factor?
Serrano's lack of head movement can be used against her. Taylor has otherworldly endurance. If Serrano can start hot early instead of late, she can overwhelm and even tire out Taylor. Given Taylor's strong chin, it's hard to see a Serrano knockout take place at this point.
Serrano via decision, this time one that can't be disputed, is the right play here.
Sporting News prediction: Serrano via unanimous decision
Alycia Baumgardner (c) vs. Jennifer Miranda for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring super featherweight titles
Per Dafabet, Alycia Baumgardner is the huge favorite at 1.04, while Jennifer Miranda is the rank outsider at 14.00. The draw is 21.0.
Baumgardner hasn't fought in almost a year, but that shouldn't be a factor. Miranda presents a challenge, but can she avoid the champion's hard shots?
The power-punching Baumgardner ranks seventh among all active fighters with a 41% power connect percentage. She also ranks tenth in +/- at 7.5. Against Mikaela Mayer, Baumgardner landed more power shots (82) and had a better connect percentage (116 of 335 shots - 34.6%).
Against Elhem Mekhaled, Baumgardner landed 141 of 542 shots (26%), landing multiple knockdowns to secure the win. Her power is legit, though her stamina is something that has needed improvement.
Miranda has never been stopped, but the 38-year-old may be biting off more than she can chew. Baumgardner's last knockout win was a vicious standing TKO victory against Terri Harper in 2021. Motivated, Baumgardner's strikes may be too much for Miranda to handle.
Sporting News prediction: Baumgardner via TKO (round six)
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Ellie Scotney (c) vs. Yamileth Mercado (c) for the IBF, WBC, WBO, and Ring super bantamweight titles
Per Dafabet, Ellie Scotney is the big 1.11 favourite, while Yamileth Mercado is the 8.00 underdog. The draw is 19.00.
With a shot at a future undisputed title fight, Scotney and Mercado are ready to give it their all.
The 27-year-old Scotney has taken over the super bantamweight division. Against Mea Motu, Scotney landed 141 of 372 shots (47.9%), with 106 of those shots for power. She landed 48% of her power punches, with rights repeatedly connecting to Motu's head.
Against Amanda Serrano, Mercado did have a better connect percentage (31% compared to 28%), but on fewer shots landed. 38% of those shots were for power. Since then, she has won six straight. Against Paulette Valenzuela, Mercado forced her against the ropes and punished her with hooks to the body.
Scotney may be the more technical fighter here, and can easily avoid being thrown by the ropes. Expect a solid back-and-forth affair, with the London-born fighter earning the win.
Sporting News prediction: Scotney via unanimous decision
Savannah Marshall (c) vs. Shadasia Green (c) for the IBF and WBO super middleweight titles
Per Dafabet, Savannah Marshall is the 1.19 heavy favorite, with Shadasia Green back at 5.70. The draw is 17.00.
The fight is a clash of styles that may be familiar to one of the two.
Marshall ranks seventh among active fighters in total punches landed per round (14.1%). She throws the third-most jabs (27) per round and lands the seventh-most (3). Hartlepool's own opponents land the fourth-fewest total punches (7.1).
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"Silent Assassin" forced Franchon Crews-Dezurn to make mistakes and tire out. Against the same opponent, Green labored through ten rounds in a losing effort. Green's most impressive performance to date was against Elin Cederroos, knocking her down in the third round before battering her by the corner.
Marshall was scientific against Crews-Dezurn, avoiding wild shots from the latter. Facing a similar opponent, Marshall could employ the same game plan here.
Often, Green swings wildly, and it could lead to her tiring out. She has also faced less top-tier competition compared to Marshall. However, the unknown factor could work in her favor.
Given her ability to adapt, The Sporting News is going with a very impressive decision win for Marshall.
Sporting News prediction: Marshall via unanimous decision