The stage is set for a new NRL premiership winner to be crowned after Penrith’s four-year reign at the top was finally ended by Brisbane last week in the preliminary finals.
The Broncos will now look to break a nearly two-decade-long title drought when they take on Melbourne Storm. Craig Bellamy’s side last claimed the premiership in 2020 when they beat the Panthers.
Both clubs have significant scars to heal from following their most recent appearances in deciders.
The Broncos infamously lost the 2023 GF after a magical late Nathan Cleary cameo, while the Storm were downed by the men from the foot of the mountains last year.
The Sporting News delivers its predictions and best bets for the grand final in the NRL below — all odds per bookmaker Sportsbet.
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Who will win NRL grand final between the Storm and Broncos?
Melbourne entered into the finals after losing their last two games where they conceded a combined 70 points.
The Sydney Roosters put 40 on them in their own backyard before the Broncos beat them 30-14 in Round 27 to cement their spot in the top four.
This victory proved pivotal to Michael Maguire’s outfit as they went on to venture down to the nation’s capital and knock off Canberra before backing this up with a rousing win over the Panthers during a wild finals run.
Yet, while the Broncos have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions, the Storm have quietly gone about their business, correcting their patchy form.
They overcame Canterbury in their qualifying final and then proved far too good for Cronulla to advance through to the GF.
The win over the Sharks last Friday allowed them to put their feet up over the weekend and watch the Broncos fight for their place in the decider.
The extra days of rest could heavily factor into the mix for this one.
The Storm have had a far easier passage through to the final compared to their opponents.
Maguire’s side got out of jail against the Raiders in a 90-minute epic, while they then had to fight back from 14-0 down against Penrith to keep their premiership hopes alive.
Despite bagging a win in Round 27, the Broncos have a horror record against the Storm as they have lost 17 of their last 19 fixtures against the Victorian powerhouses.
Meanwhile, Bellamy has the wood over his former assistant, Maguire, during their meetings as well. The Melbourne coach has won 14 of 16 games against him.
All of these factors point towards the Storm having a bit too much in the tank for the Broncos, whose fairytale run in the finals could be set to come to a crushing end at Accor Stadium, where they have struggled of late.
PREDICTION: Storm by four points
Who will score the first try in the NRL grand final?
Melbourne has struck first in more matches than any other side this campaign.
When coupled with Brisbane’s slow starts in finals games so far, it makes them the logical team to look for in this market.
One player leaps out straight away as a possible first try scorer and it is Eli Katoa.
The big Storm backrower boasts an impressive hit rate, bagging first six times already this year.
Elsewhere, flyer Will Warbrick is also an enticing option.
A right winger has scored first on four occasions against the Broncos in 2025 and the New Zealand international could add to this tally after scoring first last week against the Sharks.
BET: Will Warbrick first tryscorer ($9.50)
Roughie try scorer market for NRL grand final
Away from the likes of Xavier Coates and Kotoni Staggs, there is plenty of value to be found in backing roughies in the grand final.
Stefano Utoikamanu lit the torch paper in the lead-up to the blockbuster when he labelled certain Broncos players as "stuck up".
Yet while all attention will understandably be fixed on him from the opposition pack, Josh King may be the man to profit.
The prop knows his way to the line after scoring five tries so far this season and he could combine with Harry Grant around the ruck.
After all, the Broncos have leaked 48 per cent of their tries through the middle of the field.
For the Broncos, Xavier Willison catches the eye.
The monster forward scored on his comeback from a long-term arm injury last week and can strike through the middle, while he also frequently likes to venture out to the edges to put pressure on the defence.
The 23-year-old will be introduced to the fray off the bench, where his fresh legs could cause problems for the Storm.
BET: Josh King anytime tryscorer ($12.50)
Same game multi in Storm vs. Broncos match
Ever since the Storm blew North Queensland away 34-6 in the 2017 decider, the NRL has put on a number of tightly-fought grand finals where the match has been decided by the slimmest of margins.
Only one GF winner has emerged victorious by more than eight points in the last five deciders.
All recent history suggests this could go down to the wire with a club winning by a 1-12 point margin.
The aforementioned Katoa will be hunting for a four-pointer early and has a great record against the Broncos. The Dally M Backrower of the Year has scored four tries in his last four meetings with them.
Meanwhile, Deine Mariner is also a strong candidate to touch down.
He has scored in both of his finals games and is often on the end of some electric backline sweeps.
The opposition right winger regularly finds his name on the scoresheet against the Storm as the side has conceded nine tries in the past five matches to this position.
BET: Either team by 1-12 points, Eli Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer, Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer ($18.75)
Who will win the Clive Churchill Medal?
In the last 10 years, just two forwards have been awarded the Clive Churchill Medal.
That was Liam Martin during Penrith’s win over the Storm last year and Luke Lewis during Cronulla’s 14-12 victory over the Storm in 2016.
Could Payne Haas make it an unlikely hat-trick against Bellamy’s men in a decider?
The Broncos prop was incredible against the Panthers in their prelim and will be right at the heart of the battle once again.
Besides the Brisbane man mountain, a safe bet would be on a spine player from either side.
During the past decade, a halfback has won it three times, a five-eighth twice and a fullback three times.
Ryan Papenhuyzen picked up the medal after a dazzling display in 2020 and could figure in the conversation five years on, along with Cameron Munster.
The No.1 hasn’t been in the best of touch this season though and his opposite number makes a far more compelling case.
Reece Walsh is enjoying an incredible run of form at the business end of the competition.
The 23-year-old has scored six tries, provided nine assists, busted through 60 tackles and averaged 181.5 run metres during a six-game winning streak for Brisbane to help get them to this point.
If the Broncos are to defeat the Storm, Walsh will have had a major hand in it and he represents slightly better value than Munster, Grant and Haas.
BET: Reece Walsh to win Clive Churchill Medal ($7.00)