The NRL regular season is almost done and the top eight is all but set—now the real fun begins.
With the stakes raised exponentially, every surviving team is under pressure to perform in the coming weeks, but some clubs are facing considerably higher expectations than others.
Here’s our take on who will really be under the pump, and why.
Canberra Raiders
Pressure Rating: 7/10
Odds: $3.75
Despite Ricky Stuart’s best attempts to water things down after claiming the J.J. Giltinan Shield, minor premierships come with expectations—especially when it’s been more than three decades since your club last tasted success. “We’re not meant to be here, no-one thought we’d be near the pointy end of the competition, there’s no pressure on us,” Stuart declared after the Round 26 victory over Wests Tigers. It was a valiant attempt to protect his inexperienced squad, but with two home finals surely anything less than a grand final appearance will feel like a major let down after the year the Green Machine has had.
Melbourne Storm
Pressure Rating: 9/10
Odds: $4.25
The Storm are the most recent club not named Penrith to win an NRL title. Clear competition favourites for the second half of the 2025 season, the wheels are suddenly looking decidedly wobbly through injuries, suspensions and an alarming drop in form that sees them limp into the finals on the back of two poor losses to top eight rivals. Given Craig Bellamy’s squad also lost last year’s grand final, the pressure is higher than ever. Can they find a way to turn things around against the Bulldogs next weekend, despite missing two of their first-choice spine members?
Canterbury Bulldogs
Pressure Rating: 8/10
Odds: $8.00
After falling in week one of the 2024 finals the Bulldogs burst out of the gates in 2025 sending expectations soaring for one of the game’s most passionate fan bases. Yet in the past two months they’ve come back to the field somewhat worryingly, a situation not helped by inconsistent form and weekly speculation around key position selections. The Doggies still boast the NRL’s best defence and can beat anyone on their day. Facing a vulnerable Storm side in the first week of the finals, expectations are high to deliver a deep and successful finals run.
Brisbane Broncos
Pressure Rating: 8/10
Odds: $5.50
Fairly or unfairly, anticipation is always sky high for the game’s biggest club which has had a wild ride in 2025. Under new coach Michael Maguire, the Broncos started like world beaters, before slumping badly mid-season. Just as the ship was righted a series of injuries threatened to again derail the season, but a late surge sees them enter the finals as arguably the form team in the comp along with the Roosters. If Reece Walsh stays healthy a premiership isn’t out the question and anything short of a preliminary final (at a bare minimum) would now be seen as a huge missed opportunity.
Cronulla Sharks
Pressure Rating: 4/10
Odds: $26
Once again, the Sharks have been one of the quiet achievers of 2025, going about their business with relatively little fanfare. Despite comparatively few headlines, Craig Fitzgibbon’s men will finish a close fifth on the NRL table and host either the Roosters or Panthers next weekend at Sharks Stadium. Out of the spotlight, expectations remain generally low from all but their own fan base, but have no doubt they’re the sleepers of the field. With little pressure and a home final in week 1, they’re free to take a big swing. Can they land it?
New Zealand Warriors
Pressure Rating: 3/10
Odds: $71
It’s been a strange old year for the enigmatic Wahs. Flying high in the top four for all but the final two rounds of the season, Andrew Webster’s men have been crushed by key players injuries, with none more damaging than the ACL rupture suffered by star halfback Luke Metcalf. Few outside of New Zealand rate them any hope of breaking their NRL premiership drought in 2025, so the pressure is off and expectations are low.
Penrith Panthers
Pressure Rating: 2/10
Odds: $6.50
Been there, won that. When you’ve claimed the last four NRL competitions you’re playing with house money. While history is calling for Ivan Cleary and Co, the only real pressure in the 2025 finals series is likely to be internal. They have the cattle to do it, but whether or not the Panthers can become the first side to win the NRL premiership from outside the top four, they’ve already ‘won’ and have four rings to prove it. Lest we forget they were also sitting in outright last place after 12 rounds, so just making the finals has been an achievement in itself.
Sydney Roosters
Pressure Rating: 6/10
Odds: $14
They’ll only qualify in seventh or eighth place, but don’t be fooled. The Roosters enter the 2025 finals series with a huge amount of momentum, talent and big game experience, not to mention one of NRL era’s most accomplished head coaches in Trent Robinson. After a middling regular season, they’ve come good at just the right time and expectations have been steadily increasing over the past six weeks. “We feel ready for Friday night, and we feel ready for what’s next as well,” Robinson declared ominously ahead of the Round 27 victory over South Sydney, suggesting the club’s confidence of a deep September run. Who’d want to play them right now?
Sportsbet odds, 6 September 2025.