With just two rounds remaining in the 2025 season, the competition remains wide open, with several teams capable of going all the way.
However, even the strongest contenders run into nightmare matchups that could derail their campaigns. Experience gaps, physical mismatches, and wildcard opponents all loom large in September.
Every team has at least one opponent they would rather avoid. These matchups could expose weaknesses and dramatically shift the finals picture if things go wrong.
The Sporting News breaks down each NRL contender's nightmare matchup heading into the finals.
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Each team's nightmare matchup heading into the finals
Canberra Raiders
Nightmare matchup: Penrith Panthers
The Raiders have risen fast this season, exceeding the expectations of almost every expert and punter on the road to the minor premiership.
However, much of their high-profile talent are still extremely young, and their finals inexperience could be exposed in a high-pressure clash.
Despite the result in the 'Mudgee miracle', Penrith's finals pedigree could cause Canberra all-kinds of problems in September.
Josh Papali'i, Joseph Tapine and Corey Horsburgh are the only survivors from their 2019 grand final run, meaning most of their squad still needs to prove they can get it done when the lights are at their brightest.
Melbourne Storm
Nightmare matchup: Canberra Raiders
Melbourne has built a dynasty on discipline and consistency which could be challenged by Canberra's unpredictable and dynamic attack.
The Raiders' ability to move the ball from sideline-to-sideline anywhere on the field creates unconventional opportunities that may disrupt Melbourne's rhythm and defensive structures.
Only a very select few side's have been able to beat the Storm at their own game, which is why a team with fresh ideas could be the ones to find a chink in the armour.
Any lapse in focus or defensive misread could prove costly against Canberra who are prepared to capitalise at any moment.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Nightmare matchup: Brisbane Broncos
The Bulldogs boast talent across the park, but one factor that they've struggled to account for all season is size.
The physicality of the Broncos forward pack presents a significant challenge, as they are well-positioned to dominate the middle of the field against Canterbury.
When Brisbane can run-out a lineup that includes Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, they have the ability to impose themselves over the hybrid forwards that the Bulldogs select for their skill and quickness.
In a finals matchup, it will be interesting to see if Cameron Ciraldo changes tact after being bested by the Broncos twice already this season, or risk being overpowered.
New Zealand Warriors
Nightmare matchup: Sydney Roosters
After season-ending injuries to key players in Luke Metcalf and Mitch Barnett, the Warriors would be easily forgiven if their form dipped late in the season.
Yet, they remain in the top-four, looking to put together an unlikely finals run.
Whilst the Warriors hold on to fourth place for dear life, the Roosters are doing the same in eighth position. However, if they were to meet in the finals this year, the Roosters may be able to overwhelm them with youth, speed, and most importantly, health.
As it stands, the Roosters will have all but one player available for the finals series. Their perfect mix of veterans and newcomers, guided by Trent Robinson, could benefit from the September timing to get one over on their rival Warriors.
Brisbane Broncos
Nightmare matchup: New Zealand Warriors
Brisbane's talent is undeniable, but the Warrior's fearless approach and relentless effort make them the exact opponent capable of exposing any lingering Broncos weakness from the beginning of the year.
Michael Maguire's side has shown that when they turn on the brilliance, most opponents crumble and relent to their overwhelming momentum.
However, one thing is certain, under Andrew Webster the Warriors have become galvanised. Despite injuries and setbacks, they refuse to back down from anyone.
The knock on Brisbane has long been their toughness - or lack thereof. That's why Maguire was hired. If that criticism still holds true, the Warriors are the best placed opponent to expose it.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Nightmare matchup: Melbourne Storm
Cronulla is another side with plenty of talent, but what has separated them from the top-four this year is their composure and mental toughness under pressure - making Melbourne a daunting opponent.
The Storm dictate games with structured attack and disciplined defence, punishing errors over the course of 80-minutes.
Cronulla's occasional lapses in concentration could be exposed, especially because they will certainly find themselves in multiple sudden-death scenarios depending on how far they go.
The Sharks' lack of a consistent killer instinct is what will cost them against a Craig Bellamy coached outfit.
Penrith Panthers
Nightmare matchup: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
After four-premierships in a row, it's hard to say that any team could be a nightmare matchup for the Panthers.
However, the Bulldogs carry a unique weapon - an intimate understanding of how Penrith's system works.
Head coach Ciraldo spent four-seasons as Ivan Cleary's right-hand man, while captain Stephen Crichton was a central figure in Penrith's premiership dynasty.
They know the Panthers' systems, adjustments, and how they like to set up attacking opportunities. That experience gives Canterbury a rare edge.
Sydney Roosters
Nightmare matchup: Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
The Roosters weren't expected to challenge this year, so there's less pressure on them to deliver in the finals.
Cronulla, however, are in a different position entirely. After repeated September disappointments, they know another early exit won't be acceptable.
That desperation fuels hunger. The Sharks will throw everything at the Roosters, bringing an intensity and focus that could overwhelm a developing side.
In a pressure-cooker contest, Sydney's freedom may not be enough. Cronulla's urgency and sheer need to win could prove the difference.