The end of the NRL season is nigh, and either the Broncos or Storm will be 2025 premiers.
But while each team and fanbase is busy talking up its chances of lifting the Provan-Summons trophy on Sunday night, we’ve taken a less partial look at why they won’t.
Here’s the bad news for the Broncos:
1. Accor Stadium - Brisbane has won just six of its 18 games (33%) at Homebush since 2015. In the same period the Storm has won eight of 14 games (57%).
2. Storm dominance - There’s no way to sugarcoat this. Melbourne have won 17 of the last 19 matches between the two sides. While the Broncos did win the most recent encounter, the Storm were without arguably their most important player in captain Harry Grant, while Jahrome Hughes also broke his forearm in the 25th minute.
3. Defensive ranking - Brisbane finished the 2025 regular season with only the seventh best defence in the NRL. No premiership winner has been ranked so low this century.
4. Premiership pressure - History carries a heavy weight, especially when you’re the biggest club in rugby league and haven’t lifted a trophy since 2006. The Broncos have also lost their past two trips to the season decider.
5. Scars of 2023 - Brisbane had one hand firmly on the premiership trophy two years ago only for it to agonisingly slip away. If they get off to yet another slow start on Sunday, will the Panthers flashbacks prove too much?
6. Slow game speed - Premiership deciders are notoriously tight and grafting affairs with fewer penalties, something that could heavily favour the Storm if allowed to happen by first-time grand final referee Grant Atkins.
7. Last year’s grand finalists - Melbourne has never lost grand finals in successive years (on the field, anyway). They’ve bounced back three times before and will be looking to make it four on Sunday.
8. Finals newcomers - In the NRL era, only three teams have won the premiership after missing the finals the year before (Penrith 2003, Tigers 2005 and Roosters 2013). Brisbane finished a disappointing twelfth in 2024.
Now, before you get upset Broncos fans, be sure to check out the eight reasons why the Storm won’t win.
MORE: 8 reasons why the Melbourne Storm won’t beat the Broncos