Melbourne Cup 2025: Flemington is set for wet weather, so how could that shape the race?

Cameron Ottenhoff

Melbourne Cup 2025: Flemington is set for wet weather, so how could that shape the race? image

Four seasons in one day is what they usually say about Melbourne weather, and especially so during their spring and autumn months.

Unfortunately for the Melbourne Cup this year, it looks to be only one season all day, and that's wet.

At the time of writing, three days out from the Cup, Flemington is set for a drenching of 9–30mm on Monday and a potential downpour of 0–20mm on Cup day.

So what does that mean for the race?

MORE: Melbourne Cup track rating: Flemington conditions and weather forecast for 2025 race

The track rating will more than likely be somewhere in the soft range come race time, and it could even become a heavy track if Flemington receives every drop of rain that's forecasted on Tuesday.

The Cup has only been run on a soft rating two times in the past decade, with the Soft 6 rating in 2019 the highest in that span.

This century, the slowest winning time was the second of Makybe Diva's three straight wins in 2004, running the Cup in 3:28.55, which was also on an extremely rain-affected track, so prepare for a slowly run race.

That time was nearly 10 seconds slower than last year's winner Knight’s Choice.

There is also a strong chance that the inside barriers of Flemington come Tuesday Race 7 may become a mud pit, especially with a full slate of racing on Saturday.

This will force jockeys to make early, critical decisions on where they will want to park their horse for the race.

Above all, the wet weather may not be the best conditions for the fans, but it will even up the Cup and make for an entertaining two miles around Flemington.

Editorial Team